Australia sent more beef offshore in 2025 than any other year on record, demonstrating considerable resilience against ever-variable seasonal conditions across the country. There were 1.59 million tonnes of beef exported, an increase of 16% on 2024, which was the previous record calendar year total. All four major markets increased their intake of Australian beef, and both grassfed and grainfed product reached new highs. So what is in store for 2026?
Meat & Livestock Australia projects slaughter, production and beef exports to be lower year-on-year in 2026, but remain above 2024 levels. They also expect the herd size to decrease further both this year and next, constricting supply, albeit from historically strong levels. From a supply and demand perspective, it will be Australia’s ability to produce the beef which will likely constrain exports this year, with anecdotal reports of high female turn-off due to dry conditions in the south, and significant stock losses from floods in the north.
The US took just shy of 30% of all Australian beef exported in 2025, a market share figure which was identical to 2024, but an actual volume which was 16% higher year-on-year, and a record high. It was also more than 50% above the five-year average annual volume. Cow slaughter in the US is currently trending at more than 20% lower year-on-year, while opening fed cattle slaughter figures are 7% down, and cattle-on-feed numbers at the beginning of the year were an estimated 3.5% lower. The United States Department of Agriculture is forecasting a 3% increase in beef imports by the US in 2026, and the lower tariff quota for all countries which fall into the ‘Other’ category has likely already been filled for 2026.
Australian beef exports to China rose by 32% year-on-year, increasing their market share to 18%. This was about 1% lower than the five-year-average market share for China, but still about 35% above the average volume-wise, and made it Australia’s second-largest beef market. As we discussed here, however, the 2025 volume to China was about 25% higher than the new quota set for this year by the Chinese government. Rounding out the top four, both South Korea and Japan increased their intake of Australian beef year-on-year and compared to the five-year average, but both saw a decrease in market share.
Brazil became the world’s biggest beef producer in 2025, on the back of higher-than-expected output and reduced production by the previous number one producer, the US. Much of the global beef trade demand and pricing will hinge on whether production, and therefore exports, rise or fall in Brazil this year. The USDA is predicting Brazilian production to fall by more than 5% year-on-year in 2026, bringing total beef output from the top six producing countries 2.4% lower.
What does it mean?
Global demand for beef is not expected to wane this year, but production out of many major exporters — including Australia — is. This could further swing the supply and demand equation in favour of Australian exporters, and in turn, finished cattle prices.
Key Points
- Australian beef exports fall from July, but still record their second-highest monthly figure.
- Demand from the US, and growth in our grainfed trade, continue to contribute to export market momentum.
- Record number of cattle on feed supporting grainfed beef exports, which are up 42% in the past five years.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: Mecardo; Meat & Livestock Australia; Steiner; USDA
