Winter crop plantings are down, but almost ideal conditions in many cropping regions since planting have forecast yields pushing record levels.
Wheatcast is the CSIRO’s grain production forecast model. You can find a detailed explanation here (CSRIO Wheatcast explanation available here) but it relies heavily on plant available soil water to make predictions.
A new Wheatcast forecast is due this week, but at the time of writing we have to make do with the run from the 1st of July. Good rainfall across cropping zones has seen the forecast wheat yield creeping higher since May and now sitting at 2.56t/ha. This is at the very top of the historical range and would be a bumper crop.
Wheatcast also forecasts a band of possible yields, and at this stage of the year it is quite wide. The top of the possible yield range is 3.2t/ha, while the bottom is 2.1t/ha. The bottom number is still historically strong, and above the long-term average of 1.82t/ha.
The Wheatcast website also map yield uncertainty. WA has the least yield uncertainty, while the parts of the east coast where rainfall has been weaker have higher yield uncertainty. The fact that WA is such a big producer of wheat, and has low uncertainty is keeping the higher floor under national figures.
Figure 1 shows forecast ABARES Crop Report yields and the July 1 Wheatcast yields. Wheatcast are forecasting record yields in South Australia, but Queensland is lagging behind ABARES figures.
SA’s yield uncertainty ranges from 2.1t/ha to 3.6t/ha. A wheat yield above 2t/ha is above average for SA, so things are looking positive for those growers.
More variable conditions across NSW give it a very large range in possible yields. NSW crops tend to drive markets on the east coast so what happens there is important to southern producers. The forecast NSW yield of 2.46t/ha is above average, while downside in forecast extends to around average of 1.6t/ha. On the upside NSW yields could reach 3.5t/ha, but it seems unlikely.
The Grain Industry Association of WA’s crop report cites a good start and strong vegetative growth pointing towards another big crop. The risk lies in a lack of subsoil moisture, and a requirement of good rain to finish big crops. Hot and dry weather could significantly impact yields.
What does it mean?
The Wheatcast forecasts are suggesting a better than average crop is all but guaranteed, with a reasonable spring seeing yields at the upper end of the scale. With lower plantings we aren’t going to see any records broken this year, but it’s interesting that the models are suggesting that even with a poor finish crops should still be reasonable.
Key Points
- Wheat yield forecasts are strong thanks to a good start and strong soil moisture.
- There remains a wide variety of possible yields, but wheat yields should be above average.
- There is some way to go but wheat production is currently looking good.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: Wheatcast, GIWA, ABS/ABARES, CSIRO, Bloomberg, Mecardo
