With quotas filled in key export markets, and some shifting sentiment in another, cattle exports are in a state of flux. With uncertainty often comes price falls, and we’ve seen that in export markets, here we look at how that might affect cattle prices.
Something that has escaped reporting since DAFF dropped the monthly export figures is that beef exports in July were lower than the same month last year. The year-on-year decline is not extraordinary in itself, but it is the first time we’ve seen it since December 2022. Figure 1 shows the extraordinary growth in beef exports since the lows of 2022.
Lower beef exports fit with lower slaughter rates in June and July, as supplies came off the peaks of autumn. In terms of destinations, beef exports to China remained low, but interestingly were not at zero, with nearly 6.5 thousand tonnes shipped despite the increased tariff. This is around a quarter of the volumes sent to China earlier in the year.
Beef exports to Korea and Japan were higher than last year, thanks to the shift from China, as were exports to the US. July exports to the US were slightly lower than June, as competition increased from Brazil, and prices began to fall.
Figure 2 shows the 90CL Frozen Cow export beef price and the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI). Steiner Consulting reports that increased offers are coming to the US market, with product from both Australia and Brazil shifting to the US. Additionally, US chicken production is forecast to be up 3.4%, and exports down, creating a 4% lift in US chicken supply.
This 4% increase may not sound like much, but it equates to 1.65 billion pounds, or 748 thousand tonnes. In 2025 Australia exported 453 thousand tonnes of beef to the US. Chicken competes directly with ground beef at fast food restaurants, which is where a lot of Aussie beef ends up. While domestic beef supplies in the US remain tight, protein supplies in total are lifting.
US cattle futures are predicting the price downturn will continue. While Feeder Cattle Futures have declined only about 8% from highs, futures markets are forecasting a further 10% fall through to the end of the year.
What does it mean?
The global shortage of beef, most notably felt in the US, has kept US and export markets buoyant for much of the last two years. Export prices haven’t crashed, and beef supplies aren’t going to boom overnight, but weaker US cattle and beef prices will limit the upside of local cattle prices.
Key Points
- July beef exports were lower than last year, marking the first year on year decline since 2022.
- Lower exports to China were shifted to US, Japanese and Korean markets.
- Protein supply in the US is rising, pushing beef and cattle prices lower.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: Meat & Livestock Australia, DAFF, Steiner, CME, Mecardo
