US tariffs and trade are constantly in the news, and beef being one of the most important commodities Australia exports to the US, there is suddenly a strong interest in the US cattle and beef industry and trade data. Here we give a snapshot of the US beef production, consumption, and trade.
The US beef industry is one of the largest in the world. Finished cattle in the US are almost all grain fed, with cows, either dairy or beef, the only sources of domestic lean beef.
With the strong grain-fed production, the US produces more higher quality cuts of beef than it can consume, while not producing enough lean beef to supply mince and burger markets. No doubt readers have heard about the declining US cattle herd due to drought, and this is showing up in US beef production.
Figure 1 shows US beef production and consumption, as reported by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). After being relatively even since or even running a surplus in some years since 2008, the US has shown a deficit in 2023 and 2024 which is expected to grow in 2025.
To put the US production deficit in perspective, nearly 1 million tonnes is roughly equivalent to 37% of Australia’s total beef production.
Figure 2 shows US beef imports and exports since 2000. As you’d expect with a production deficit, import volumes grew rapidly in 2024 and are expected to be higher again in 2025. With a lower herd and lower production, US beef exports are in decline.
US beef exports go to five major markets. Canada and Mexico are exempt from tariffs on beef and other ag products and are unlikely to tariffs on US beef. Japan and South Korea are in the negotiation phase, but China is in a trade dispute with the US.
In 2024 China accounted for 14% of US beef exports, having grown rapidly from virtually nothing in 2016. China has not beef renewing US beef export licenses and now has a large tariff on US beef.
If the US can’t send beef to China, can it be eaten locally? Steiner’s weekly report for MLA (see more here) explains they can be absorbed but it will be at a lower value than they would make in the export market.
What does it mean?
It’s been stated a few times that the US can’t afford to take much less of our beef. It’s the type they can’t produce and is still cheaper than domestic lean products. Australian processors might see stronger demand from China for higher-quality cuts of beef.
Key Points
- The US beef industry is currently in deficit, with imports growing.
- China is a major export market for US beef.
- Australia might see opportunities for increased beef sales to China.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: DAFF, Steiner, MLA, USDA, Mecardo
