Abundance of lambs this week doesn’t rock the boat

Lamb throughput exceeded 299k head this week to the yards and, at this pivotal period of the year, was welcomed by buyers even if they didn’t break the scales on the weight front. Saleyard reports confirmed that heavy lambs do remain the pick of the yards if available and were still fetching over $11/kg cwt in Wagga, as supply was dominated by lighter lambs again.

The National Mutton Indicator (NMI) lost 39¢ to 726¢/kg cwt as the double whammy of a lift in turn-off sheep numbers and more trade lambs to focus on impacted prices. Similarly, the National Restocker Lamb Indicator lost 33¢ to 1063¢/kg cwt as the summer heat starts to kick in and focus shifts to keeping stock on hand watered. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) tracked sideways at 1077¢/kg cwt.

The latest ABARES report provided an update on the outlook for 2026, and the forecast suggests that lamb and mutton production will fall next year as a hangover of lower lamb marking and higher expected ewe retention next season (read more here). In theory, this will be supportive of pricing at current levels of export demand, but a lot will have to play out in terms of seasonal conditions and whether prices at this level will be sustainable for processors before we suggest prices are going to rocket higher.

Combined lamb and sheep slaughter again eclipsed 600k head last week at a national level, which is 21% higher than what we saw at the start of spring but is 17% lower than the same week last year. Supply has improved slowly as spring has come and gone, but the numbers are still well back on where we were last year, which isn’t ideal for the current level of capacity, particularly when the lambs presented at the yards remain lighter and drier than buyers would prefer.