This time last week, the USDA’s May report slashed US wheat production to 42mmt, down sharply from last year’s 54mmt and the smallest crop since 1972/73. Global wheat production was also cut by around 25mmt, with the bulk of the reductions centered on major exporters including Australia, Argentina and the US. The market responded accordingly, rallying 45c/bu.
The next major talking point was Trump’s visit to China, with trade, market access and Iran all high on the agenda. When the meetings concluded, reviews were mixed. China committed to purchasing 200 Boeing aircraft, but notably absent was any announcement regarding additional agricultural purchases.
This week began with headlines from the White House claiming China had agreed to buy a further US$17 billion of US agricultural products on top of the previously agreed US$25 billion worth of soybeans. Agricultural commodities surged on the news, although the rally never truly caught fire. The lack of detail, combined with unusually muted coverage from Chinese state media, kept enthusiasm in check. As the week progressed, gains steadily evaporated as more seasoned observers questioned why China would commit to further US purchases when existing tariffs had apparently not been addressed or removed.
So, the market continues to throw up more twists than an Agatha Christie novel. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to separate fact from noise, but when uncertainty reigns, fundamentals still matter most.
Global wheat ending stocks are forecast to decline by around 1.5% year on year, but more importantly, the share held by major exporters is projected to fall by 14%. There are also several red flags emerging. Both Russia and Canada are experiencing delays to their spring wheat planting programs, with the USDA estimating Canadian wheat production could fall 12% from last year. Russian production estimates currently range anywhere from 86mmt (USDA) to 90mmt (SovEcon), with the latter suggesting conditions may be improving.
Offsetting some of this bullishness is the fact that several Middle Eastern and North African nations have enjoyed above-average growing seasons and may not need to be particularly aggressive buyers in the near term.
Add in the looming threat of El Niño, along with the ongoing risks of potential input shortages globally, and the outlook remains anything but straightforward.
Good luck indeed, trying to trade in this market.
Agatha Christie would be proud
This time last week, the USDA’s May report slashed US wheat production to 42mmt, down sharply from last year’s 54mmt and the smallest crop since 1972/73. Global wheat production was also cut by around 25mmt, with the bulk of the reductions centered on major exporters including Australia, Argentina and the US. The market responded accordingly, rallying 45c/bu.
The next major talking point was Trump’s visit to China, with trade, market access and Iran all high on the agenda. When the meetings concluded, reviews were mixed. China committed to purchasing 200 Boeing aircraft, but notably absent was any announcement regarding additional agricultural purchases.
This week began with headlines from the White House claiming China had agreed to buy a further US$17 billion of US agricultural products on top of the previously agreed US$25 billion worth of soybeans. Agricultural commodities surged on the news, although the rally never truly caught fire. The lack of detail, combined with unusually muted coverage from Chinese state media, kept enthusiasm in check. As the week progressed, gains steadily evaporated as more seasoned observers questioned why China would commit to further US purchases when existing tariffs had apparently not been addressed or removed.
So, the market continues to throw up more twists than an Agatha Christie novel. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to separate fact from noise, but when uncertainty reigns, fundamentals still matter most.
Global wheat ending stocks are forecast to decline by around 1.5% year on year, but more importantly, the share held by major exporters is projected to fall by 14%. There are also several red flags emerging. Both Russia and Canada are experiencing delays to their spring wheat planting programs, with the USDA estimating Canadian wheat production could fall 12% from last year. Russian production estimates currently range anywhere from 86mmt (USDA) to 90mmt (SovEcon), with the latter suggesting conditions may be improving.
Offsetting some of this bullishness is the fact that several Middle Eastern and North African nations have enjoyed above-average growing seasons and may not need to be particularly aggressive buyers in the near term.
Add in the looming threat of El Niño, along with the ongoing risks of potential input shortages globally, and the outlook remains anything but straightforward.
Good luck indeed, trying to trade in this market.
Next week
With Northern Hemisphere winter wheat harvest fast approaching, expect periods of harvest pressure as importers step back and shop around for the cheapest available origin.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: Next Level Grain Marketing, Bloomberg, USDA, Reuters, Sov Econ, World Grain, Mecardo
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