Plenty is happening in the beef market as production begins to ramp up. Whilst saleyard prices this week effectively tracked sideways there looks to be movement at the station for demand which will impact saleyard cattle prices moving forward.
This week, restocker steers improved 20¢ to 503¢/kg lwt and restocker heifers improved 11¢ to 403¢/kg lwt. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) improved 13¢ to 854¢/kg cwt. Heavy steers (441¢/kg lwt) and processor cows (358¢/kg lwt) saw very minor declines week on week.
158,528 head slaughtered nationally last week was a rapid jump in pace, within a couple hundred head of the high tide mark we’ve seen in this recent supply cycle. Whilst some of the rise can be explained by the saleyard / public holiday shutdowns, what’s interesting is the timing of this level of slaughter. Processor profitability is the key motivator but there has been a number of recent developments that could motivate processors to ramping up demand and operate at this level of productivity in the short term.
Firstly, dry conditions persist in the south and the heat has driven plenty of turnoff in the north in the last few weeks. Without decent southern rainfall in the next two months, more stock will exit the paddock.
The trade ceiling with China will have the supply chain considering not how much can we sell but how quickly can we sell it directly. Particularly in the premium grainfed beef space which is still in high demand from China. It’s not too much of a leap of logic to suggest that processors will be keen to prioritise this product on the kill floor, boosting productivity in the short term as orders are brought forward. Post lunar new year things might get really busy.
The quota limit restrictions for Argentine manufacturing lean beef into the US was lifted by 80,000 tonnes, paving the way for more Argentine volume into the US and therefore more competition. Simultaneously, per Steiner Group Brazil’s taken a further hit on the export front to China. Almost 200 000 tonnes of beef delivered in 2025, will now count against 2026 based on the date of product clearing customs. This brings the timeline forward for Brazil to reach quota limit into China and therefore being more competitive into other markets. More reason for Australian exporters to be on the front foot with shipments in Q1 and Q2.
The Aussie dollar over the last 12 months was flirting with improvement but the horse looks to have bolted as the exchange rate to the US dollar has jumped 6% since New Years Day from 0.66 to 0.71 yesterday (Figure 2). Of course, the first thing that jumps to mind is the impact on affordability into the US and 90cl prices. Last week saw firm trading in US dollar terms for the 90cl, and a slight decline in aussie dollar terms to 1171c/kg. Lower returns aren’t ideal for exporters, but prices have been lower than this 99% of the time before. With pundits forecasting the aussie dollar to continue to improve, selling beef now instead of later provides some level of protection from further currency changes. Cattle prices will likely ease in lockstep but shouldn’t drop dramatically as prices in US c/lb remain strong.
US cattle slaughter is heading the opposite direction to local conditions, with year-to-date national slaughter down 11.7% year on year. Securing foreign beef is still a priority with the USDA expecting imports to grow again this season by 2%.
The week ahead….
Strong cattle supply, easing export prices, a race to make it into China under quota, desperate demand from our leading trade partner and more competition expected mid-year is a combination of trends that suggests now is a good time as any to be productive.
Given these assumptions (and processors committing to this level of demand moving forward) this should support demand for the next few months with cattle prices trading in a narrow range. As always, the more rain the better for prices. Until a strong rainfall event in the south, upside will be limited for pricing. Turnoff cattle should find willing buyers.
ABARES released their March 2026 Agricultural Commodities Report last week and have revised most major figures higher for the current financial year. Gross value of
Much like many paddocks across Australia after recent rains, the national cattle indicators are a sea of green. All categories rose from the previous week
Prices tracked sideways as the trade waits in anticipation of some rainfall to reach the dry southern cattle regions. Indicative NLRS yardings early Friday has
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Are things about to ramp up?
This week, restocker steers improved 20¢ to 503¢/kg lwt and restocker heifers improved 11¢ to 403¢/kg lwt. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) improved 13¢ to 854¢/kg cwt. Heavy steers (441¢/kg lwt) and processor cows (358¢/kg lwt) saw very minor declines week on week.
158,528 head slaughtered nationally last week was a rapid jump in pace, within a couple hundred head of the high tide mark we’ve seen in this recent supply cycle. Whilst some of the rise can be explained by the saleyard / public holiday shutdowns, what’s interesting is the timing of this level of slaughter. Processor profitability is the key motivator but there has been a number of recent developments that could motivate processors to ramping up demand and operate at this level of productivity in the short term.
Firstly, dry conditions persist in the south and the heat has driven plenty of turnoff in the north in the last few weeks. Without decent southern rainfall in the next two months, more stock will exit the paddock.
The trade ceiling with China will have the supply chain considering not how much can we sell but how quickly can we sell it directly. Particularly in the premium grainfed beef space which is still in high demand from China. It’s not too much of a leap of logic to suggest that processors will be keen to prioritise this product on the kill floor, boosting productivity in the short term as orders are brought forward. Post lunar new year things might get really busy.
The quota limit restrictions for Argentine manufacturing lean beef into the US was lifted by 80,000 tonnes, paving the way for more Argentine volume into the US and therefore more competition. Simultaneously, per Steiner Group Brazil’s taken a further hit on the export front to China. Almost 200 000 tonnes of beef delivered in 2025, will now count against 2026 based on the date of product clearing customs. This brings the timeline forward for Brazil to reach quota limit into China and therefore being more competitive into other markets. More reason for Australian exporters to be on the front foot with shipments in Q1 and Q2.
The Aussie dollar over the last 12 months was flirting with improvement but the horse looks to have bolted as the exchange rate to the US dollar has jumped 6% since New Years Day from 0.66 to 0.71 yesterday (Figure 2). Of course, the first thing that jumps to mind is the impact on affordability into the US and 90cl prices. Last week saw firm trading in US dollar terms for the 90cl, and a slight decline in aussie dollar terms to 1171c/kg. Lower returns aren’t ideal for exporters, but prices have been lower than this 99% of the time before. With pundits forecasting the aussie dollar to continue to improve, selling beef now instead of later provides some level of protection from further currency changes. Cattle prices will likely ease in lockstep but shouldn’t drop dramatically as prices in US c/lb remain strong.
US cattle slaughter is heading the opposite direction to local conditions, with year-to-date national slaughter down 11.7% year on year. Securing foreign beef is still a priority with the USDA expecting imports to grow again this season by 2%.
The week ahead….
Strong cattle supply, easing export prices, a race to make it into China under quota, desperate demand from our leading trade partner and more competition expected mid-year is a combination of trends that suggests now is a good time as any to be productive.
Given these assumptions (and processors committing to this level of demand moving forward) this should support demand for the next few months with cattle prices trading in a narrow range. As always, the more rain the better for prices. Until a strong rainfall event in the south, upside will be limited for pricing. Turnoff cattle should find willing buyers.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: Mecardo; Meat and Livestock Australia; Steiner Consulting Group; USDA; Bloomberg
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Have any questions or comments?
Beef sector to stay strong after sky-high year
ABARES released their March 2026 Agricultural Commodities Report last week and have revised most major figures higher for the current financial year. Gross value of
Water adds confidence to cattle
Much like many paddocks across Australia after recent rains, the national cattle indicators are a sea of green. All categories rose from the previous week
The rise of grain fed cattle continues
There is plenty going on in the world and locally which could move cattle markets. Ever rising tensions in the Middle East will have impacts
Market steady as the south patiently waits it’s turn for a drink
Prices tracked sideways as the trade waits in anticipation of some rainfall to reach the dry southern cattle regions. Indicative NLRS yardings early Friday has
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.