Australian beef currently remains exempt from Trump’s latest US tariff announcement, with the tariff free agreement confirmed late last year continuing to stand. Australia’s biggest competitor when it comes to the US beef trade, Brazil, has also managed to avoid any new tariff on their beef, as new figures show the American cattle herd is still in decline. However, quotas, tariffs and movements in the global trade are still impacting Australian beef exports and where they are headed, as overall volumes remain at historically high levels.
Just last week Australia filled its beef quota into South Korea, which means any trade with that market for the remainder of the year will incur a 24% tariff rather than the 5.3% in-quota tariff. After volumes of Australian beef into China diminished significantly last month on the back of that quota having already been filled, more than 32,000 tonnes of Australian beef were sent to South Korea in June. This record monthly volume for that market was 113% more than the five-year-average, and 41% more than June 2025. It was the earliest filling of the quota on record, aided by the stalling of the China trade and a lack of product out of the US.
Some markets that traditionally make up 3% or less of Australia’s export beef trade have also been experiencing growth since volumes to China diminished significantly post-quota filling in June. This includes Saudi Arabia, which imported its highest monthly volume of Australian beef since 2015 in June. Year-to-date the volume is up 17%, and it sits 27% above the five-year figure. Australian beef to the UK has had the largest year-on-year percentage increase for the first half, increasing by 84% and taking it into the top 10 markets when it comes to volume.
We are still a week or more away from getting the latest country specific beef export data, but volumes from June shows that as a collective volume all markets outside the top 10 destinations recorded its biggest monthly total since 2013. It was 89% above the five-year-average for the month of June, and brought the year-to-date volume sent to the ‘other’ markets 16% higher than the same period in 2025, making up 9% of total market share.
While beef and cattle have previously been exempted from the back-and-forth tariff tiff between Canada and the US, word on the street is it may not stay that way. Canada makes up 3% of Australia’s beef export trade, but monthly volumes for so far this year have been tracking between 114% and 271% higher than the short-term average. Year-to-date volumes of Australian beef to Canada are already above the full year figure for the eight of the past 10 years – with the exception being the past two years of bumper beef production.
What does it mean?
When it comes to global beef supply, the latest cattle inventory out of the US showed the beef cow herd down 0.7% (despite expectations of it increasing) and the calf crop for 2026 to be nearly half a million head lower than the same time last year. According to Steiner Consulting Group and China Customs data, Australia is the only major beef producer to have filled its quota into China as of the end of June, with the next closest being Brazil at 79% and all other countries published still having at least 51% of their quota still available. Despite the inevitable decline in two of our major Asian markets for the remainder of the calendar year, export demand remains promising as we fill into many more countries looking for trade not impacted by Trump’s tariff and America’s lack of beef.
Key Points
- Australian beef not impacted by US tariffs as beef cow herd in America revised lower again.
- South Korea quota fills up in record time as China trade comes to a standstill on back of its own out of quota tariff.
- Global demand for Australian beef remains resilient as smaller markets make moves.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: Meat & Livestock Australia, Steiner Consulting Group, Mecardo
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