Australia’s total sheepmeat exports dropped 3% year-on-year for the month of May but remains 1% above 2024 for the year-to-date. Trump and all his tariff back and forth may be starting to have an impact, as exports to the US dipped and volumes to China increased. Meanwhile, increased tariff-free quotas have seen total sheepmeat exports to the UK on the rise so far this year, and Papua New Guinea is emerging as a prominent market.
Lamb exports reached a new monthly record in May, beating out the previous highest volume, set in May last year, by just 50 tonnes. This was more than 25% above the five-year average for the month and brought year-to-date levels to 2% above the same period in 2024. The US remained Australia’s biggest lamb market for the month and for 2025 so far, with volumes increasing 20% on the previous month. While the US intake was 12% lower than year-ago levels, that comparison is to the record month, and the volume was still 18% above the five-year average for the month.
China imported its largest volume of Australian lamb in May since September 2023, 9% more than the five-year average for the month, and a jump of 14% on April figures. This has taken their market share for the year-to-date to 22%, compared to just 15% at the same time in 2024. This comes on the back of the 10 new Australian processors given access to the Chinese market for the first time in April.
A market that did take a record volume of lamb in May was Papua New Guinea, jumping 44% year-on-year and bringing their year-to-date figure 17% higher. Teamed with a more than 500% increase in mutton imports for the month (albeit from a very low base), PNG’s total sheepmeat intake from Australia is up 25% for 2025. The UK market has also been booming, with combined lamb and mutton volumes up 63% both for May year-on-year, and for the January to May period. With lamb figures up nearly 50% from the previous month, May was also a record intake for the UK.
Mutton exports, while not in record territory, remained strong at 43% above the average for May, and are still tracking at 1% above this time last year for 2025 so far. China had its smallest mutton import volume from Australia for the year so far in May, but remains the dominant market, up 13% for the year-to-date. Other key markets Saudi Arabia and Malaysia, saw a significant volume increase, up 29% and 11% respectively year-on-year. Both countries now hold 12% of the market share each.
What does it mean?
US lamb volumes show plenty of resilience in the market despite the implementation of a 10% tariff, which is now starting to play out. The increase in lamb to China is also very positive when it comes to buoyancy of the market, especially with a slight decline in mutton, showing they aren’t shying away from the more expensive product. This, along with growth in emerging markets like the UK and PNG, should put Australia in good stead to maintain a record level of lamb exports this year despite rising domestic prices – if we have the supply.
Key Points
- The US is still the largest market for lamb, but China increases its intake by 25%
- Papua New Guinea rises to the fourth-largest single sheepmeat market in May
- Australian mutton is gaining momentum in Malaysia
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, ABARES, Mecardo
