The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released their quarterly slaughter and meat production data last week. There were some records broken in the annual numbers, but the headline figures somewhat mask the data which gives us some ideas of how supply might play out over the coming months.
Lamb slaughter reached a new record in 2024, with 26.38 million heads going over the hooks for the year. Lamb slaughter was 6% higher than in 2023 and nearly 16% higher than the five-year average.
Victoria is by far the largest lamb slaughter state, accounting for 54% of the national kill, and driving the increase. Victoria saw a 9% increase in lamb slaughter on last year and a 22% rise on the five-year average.
Despite the strong annual numbers, December quarter lamb slaughter was down 8% in the December 2023 quarter (Figure 1). Just over half a million fewer lambs were slaughtered for the quarter compared to last year, and all states contributed to the decrease except Tasmania.
The December quarter lamb slaughter numbers were still 6% above the five-year average, so rates were still historically strong despite being well down on last year.
The question now is whether the lower December slaughter was due to lambs not being ready for slaughter or were never marked in the first place. Early slaughter numbers for 2025 are higher than last year, suggesting that some lambs that are traditionally processed before Christmas have been carried over into the new year.
We also know that survey data suggests there were more lambs marked last winter and spring. This means there are plenty more to come unless a lot of females are held for restocking purposes.
Sheep supply made up for the lack of lambs coming through in the December quarter, with nearly 3.5 million head slaughtered in the quarter. This was up 29.5% on December 2023, 55% on the five-year average, and the highest quarterly slaughter rate since March 2007.
Strong December slaughter helps push the annual rate to 11.78 million head, the highest since 2006, and almost 1.5 million head above the latest official estimates from Meat and Livestock Australia.
Figure 3 shows annual slaughter as a proportion of the sheep flock. Without an official flock number for 2024 yet, we used MLA’s latest estimate of 74.5 million head. Both lamb and sheep were at record levels. Changes in flock structure meant were producing more lambs from fewer sheep. Sheep slaughter at more than 14% of the flock traditionally leads to flock shrinkage in the order of 4-10%
What does it mean?
There are short-term and long-term takeouts from December slaughter data. Short term it seems unlikely that lamb supply will tighten significantly, without a widespread autumn break to encourage holding onto females and or merino wether lambs.
Medium- and long-term decline in the flock should at least see mutton values narrow the gap on lamb, and lamb prices find support.
Key Points
- ABS slaughter data shows different trends in lamb and sheep in the December quarter.
- Annual slaughter rates were very high in 2025, indicating the flock is in decline.
- Short-term lamb supply looks adequate, but longer-term mutton and lamb supply should tighten
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: Mecardo, ABS, MLA
