Wool production and supply tends to be reported on a gross basis, which smooths over differences due to breed and other quality factors (such as fibre diameter). With this in mind, this article takes a look at Australian auction sales, as a proxy for supply, for merino wool by mulesing status.
Beginning in 2008–2009, wool from non-mulesed sheep, from sheep where mulesing had ceased, and also from sheep which had been mulesed and treated with a registered analgesic and/or anaesthetic (originally recorded as pain relief (PR) in catalogues and now recorded as AA) was recorded in Australian auction sale catalogues. This information is collected by the National Wool Declaration (see more here).
Figure 1 shows the proportions of merino wool sold at auction by season for ceased and non-mulesed (CM-NM), for mulesed sheep treated with pain relief (AA), and for the balance, mainly wool with no declaration or wool from mulesed sheep (ND-M). The current season uses sales data for the July to December period. The proportions for CM-NM and AA have grown steadily during the past 18 seasons, with CM-NM proportion reaching 21% for the first half of this season and 48% for AA. The proportion of non-declared/mulesed merino wool is currently 30% of sales, a still sizeable chunk of merino wool sales.
Figure 2 shows the actual volumes (in clean million kg terms) of merino wool sales for these categories since 2008–2009. The current season uses volumes for the first half of the season, adjusted pro rata to provide an estimate for the full season.
Total merino auction sales varied around 160 mkg clean until 2018–2019, with CM-NM volumes steady around 11–14 mkg and AA volumes steadily growing. The growth in AA was achieved by a transfer from ND-M wool. The pandemic upset the data, especially in 2020–2021.
After the pandemic, total merino sales dropped down to around 149 mkg clean for four seasons to 2023–2024. Through this period, the CM-NM volumes jumped to 22–27 mkg, stimulated by the high premiums which appeared in the 2021–2022 mid-Sep-25 article (see article here), and AA volumes continued to gradually grow, with ND-M volumes correspondingly shrinking.
Since mid-2024, the total volume of merino wool sold has dropped again, to 124–129 mkg clean, as dry conditions in many sheep regions have put downward pressure on sheep numbers and wool production. During this period, the volume of CM-NM merino wool has held steady. Volume in the other two categories has fallen, with AA volumes this season to date down by 16% on 2023–2024 and ND-M down by 29%.
A large proportion of the fall in AA volumes can be arguably sheeted home to lower clean fleece weights given dry seasonal conditions, but the larger proportional fall in ND-M volumes looks to be driven primarily by lower sheep numbers. This throws up the idea that supply risk for merino wool production in Australia varies widely according to mulesing status, with ND-M wool production having the highest risk of further declines.
What does it mean?
The industry needs a couple of consecutive reasonable seasons to allow sheep numbers and wool production to settle. With that caveat in mind, since 2024 merino auction volumes have fallen by 18% (27 mkg clean) with AA merino volumes down 16% and ND-M merino volumes down by 29%, indicating the section of merino wool production in Australia with the biggest risk of further declines appears to be the 30% of merino wool which is ND-M (mulesed or non-declared).
Key Points
- The proportion of merino wool sales declared as CM-NM is running at 21% for this season to date, its highest level yet.
- The proportion of wool declared to have used pain relief (AA) when mulesing is running at 48%.
- Wool declared from mulesed sheep or with no declaration is running around 30% of sales, and has had the greatest proportional fall in volume in recent years of 29% to 39% depending on the base season used.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: AWEX, ICS, Mecardo
