Grain options as a hedging tool
After spending much of the three months over harvest doing very little, volatility is back in the wheat market. Canola has been on a rollercoaster for the best part of a year, with little price certainty going forward. This week we look at alternative price protection tools for producers. While there are a number of […]
Some economic theory applied to beef tariffs
With US tariffs still firmly on the agenda, and with beef and lamb possible targets, the question now is what would this do to our export volumes and price? It’s hard to know, but we’ll dive into a bit of economic theory and come up with some possible scenarios. Writing this took a bit of […]
Projecting tighter ovine supply
The March Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) Australian Sheep Industry Projections were released on Monday. The projections provide a view on where the sheep supply is at in terms of flock, and how that will impact supply going forward. After a year of record slaughter levels for lamb, and 18 year highs for sheep, MLA […]
Who is getting sick of tariff talk?
President Trump has been at it again, talking about imposing tariffs on all agricultural imports, (albeit via the X platform). This leads to all sorts of questions as to how it will impact Australian agricultural commodities. The good news for grain producers is that negative impacts will be minimal. According to the Australian Bureau of […]
Consumers benefitting from current pricing
While world feed grain and cereal prices are nothing to get excited about for producers, they do represent value for grain consumers. At this time of year, it can be hard to secure physical forward pricing, but there are other ways to protect against price upside. This harvest has seen feed grain prices largely settle […]
Breaking down cow and heifer slaughter
Usually, cattle market analysts read data in similar ways. At the moment there are a couple of different schools of thought in terms of where the herd is headed, and what this means for pricing. Here we take a look at the differences and delve a bit deeper into some data. The latest Australian Bureau […]
Finding a wheat pricing starting point
There has been plenty of talk about the tightening global supply of wheat, and how this could see some volatility hit the market during the northern hemisphere spring. Here we take a look back for a guide to the sort of price target wheat growers might be setting for locking in some better prices on […]
Australian lamb slaughter hits new highs
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released their quarterly slaughter and meat production data last week. There were some records broken in the annual numbers, but the headline figures somewhat mask the data which gives us some ideas of how supply might play out over the coming months. Lamb slaughter reached a new record in […]
Mutton supply following an 18-year-old trend
Sheep and lambs continue to flow into saleyards and processors as we move through summer. Continued dry conditions through key southern sheep zones appear to be driving the strong turnoff. Here, we delve into the past to find when supplies might tighten. We know that Western Australia has been in flock liquidation mode for some […]
Waiting for volatility
With all the talk of tariffs and trade disruptions, grain prices have remained remarkably steady. Canola has been volatile, but it has been like a yo-yo for six months or more. Now that we are well and truly in the post-harvest period, we’ll take another look at pricing. Around a month ago, we looked at […]
January export lull impacts year-on-year gains.
After a record year of beef exports in 2024, volumes have kicked off 2025 in a similar vein. Beef exports are traditionally lower in January, but with the level they have kicked off, we might be on track for yet another record. Figure 1 shows that Australian beef exports kicked off the new year at […]
Price bump from the tariff talk?
A question we received this week was in regards to the new US administration, and the liberal use of tariffs, and how it might open opportunities for Australian commodities. China is the focus, as Canada and Mexico have received reprieves, so we’ll look at US/China trade on some grain commodities Australia is interested in. The […]
