Could this be peak steer supply?
The end of March seems a lifetime ago given what has gone down in cattle markets since. But it is the end of March slaughter and beef production data which was dropped recently. Despite being out of date, and market drivers having left it behind, it’s still worth analysing. There are some good headline numbers […]
Wheat upside reliant on northern hemisphere
International wheat markets continue to bounce around, looking for a level as the northern hemisphere harvest approaches. Locally price spreads have ballooned, but then it rained. Here we compare prices in different markets. Some good old-fashioned volatility has returned to US wheat markets in recent months. There are plenty of fundamentals in play as we […]
Oilseed growth continues
Last week we looked at the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) in terms of wheat and corn. This week attention turns to oilseeds, with supplies seemingly continuing their never-ending growth. There has been plenty of talk locally about the canola price premium to cereals, and how it’s likely to drive canola production again […]
Lamb slaughter down, weights up
The Australian Bureau of Statistic (ABS) quarterly livestock products data dropped last week. While the data is seven weeks old, it is the only data we have on lamb and mutton production, and therefore carcase weights. We have a new record for lamb weights. Lamb slaughter for the March quarter was down 15%, which is […]
What is the appetite for restocking in the south?
With the selling-off of cattle from northern NSW and southeast Queensland, and plenty heading south, we’ve had some queries as to the appetite for restocking in higher rainfall zones of South Australia, Victoria and southern NSW. This time last year we were seeing the southern cattle destock hit it’s peak, as a dry autumn and […]
WASDE forecasting weaker production
The May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is always one of the most anticipated. The May WASDE gives the first look at new season production and consumption estimates, and this year it moved the market. After record wheat production and rising stocks in 2025-26, […]
Can extreme US lamb prices flow here?
Trying to decipher US lamb prices is hard for someone with experience in market analysis. After trawling through United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) website with a charting function, and after converting the numbers we can see why their demand for our exports continued to grow. Looking at raw numbers, one would think that US […]
The WA wheatbelt no more
While the official crop report is a little way off, the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) has had a crack at estimating sowing areas in WA for the coming winter cropping season. Looking at the estimates, the WA wheatbelt might need to be renamed the Wheleyola belt. Wheat, barley, canola belt is a […]
Hay and feed grain rally starting in the north
Last year it felt like we were writing about tariff impacts every week, this year it’s the Middle East conflict and subsequent rising cost of energy. With hay and silage being back of mind while winter crops and pastures are planted, it’s time we had another look at feed and fodder markets. Since the hay […]
Have we got 2023 on our mind?
The female and young cattle selloff continues as meaningful rainfall eluded much of New South Wales. Slaughter rates have continued to climb, and prices have fallen abruptly but are finding some support. Over the last six months we have mentioned a number of times about the large herd bringing with it large price risk. We […]
Can the wool rise turn the tide back to Merinos?
Wool prices have finally made their move, defying conflicts and a stronger Aussie dollar to post fresh eight-year highs last week. The sheep flock in general has been in decline, with Merino’s bearing the brunt of the falls. Here we take a high-level snapshot and see whether we are in for flock growth. The wool […]
Energy shock to drive pulse plantings?
Forecasting a change in planted hectares of the winter crop nationally is already difficult, now there is an energy shock to factor in as well. Will more certainty on supply and seasonality halt a swing towards crops which can produce their own nitrogen? ANZAC day have come and gone, and while it has historically marked […]