Cattle price volatility lower as supply and demand find balance
Cattle market volatility has waned recently. The wild swings of 2023 saw prices move up to 70% across the course of two months. Thus far in 2024, we have seen prices shift, but the size of the moves is small compared to 2022 and 2023. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) has started 2024 in […]
Exchange rates helping wheat values
The exchange rate has been in the news lately, with the Australian dollar falling to a six-month low last week. Given this, we thought it was time to revisit how exchange rates can impact the price of grain commodities here. Figure 1 shows the Aussie dollar has steadied in 2024, but broadly continues the downward […]
US lamb demand stronger
The US has held the mantle as our largest market for lamb exports since lambs got very expensive back in 2020. As a single destination, they are still the largest importer, but last year Australia sent more to the Middle East region. The US is very important in putting a floor in prices, so we’ll […]
Performance from pulses
Faba beans have become a popular break crop in southern states, delivering not only a valuable export or feed commodity, but also giving nutritional benefits to soils. The previous season saw lower plantings and yields, but a boost in prices. Pulse production, in general, has lifted in recent years, with increased plantings of lentils and […]
Finding a floor or dead cat bounce?
Sowing is getting underway here, and this generally sees selling slow down as grain growers are busy on tractors rather than filling trucks with old season grain, or at the computer looking at new season prices. While there is nothing screaming sell at the moment, things are looking more positive. Wheat prices seem to have […]
The recipe for higher cattle prices
The best recipe for stronger cattle prices is strong beef export values, and rain. The last week has delivered on both fronts, with major livestock areas in NSW and Queensland receiving autumn rain, and manufacturing beef prices heading towards record levels. We have been hearing a lot about floods in the Blue Mountains, but it […]
Lamb demand shifting to the right
All markets are governed by supply and demand. Lamb markets are no different, and we have historically seen a very good relationship between supply and price, which gives a measure of demand. Some updated analysis on this suggests demand might up this year. Long-time readers will have seen our demand curve charts before. The demand […]
Long term crop forecasts
It is hard enough forecasting commodity production for the coming season, let alone any further. Regardless, The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) do like to have a stab at forecasting crop production for the coming five years, and they are worth a look. In their Agricultural commodities and trade data […]
Grainfed cattle bolstering supplies
With the export beef market again on the up, history tells us that our cattle prices should be following. Local supply is the issue, and the latest lotfeeding numbers add to the view that there are a lot more cattle waiting for slaughter. Friday’s market comment (read here) looked at the rising price of 90CL […]
Soybeans pushing out wheat and corn
Grain markets are in somewhat of a holding pattern as northern hemisphere winter crops emerge from dormancy, and sowing of spring crops getting underway. Crop progress reports from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) start on the 1st of April, until then we’ve got acreage estimates to work off. Plenty happens in terms of […]
Light lambs still headed to the Middle East
It’s been four months since we had a look at the much-talked-about Middle Eastern lamb export market. With the export data for the first two months of the year, along with slaughter weights for the December quarter, it’s time to again assess how many lambs have exited the market early. Figure 1 shows lamb exports […]
Wheat and canola heading in different directions
The hedging window for next season is closing for wheat, and at current levels, there are probably not too many growers rushing to do anything. Canola has found some strength in recent times and defied wheats’ drift lower. The depressing factors for wheat prices keep coming. While prices have been dragged lower by corn, wheat […]
