The light lamb trade off
When lamb supply tightens enough to push prices to the extremes like we are seeing at the moment, it makes the usual decision-making all the more difficult. History tells us that these values won’t last forever, which makes the timing of new season lamb marketing all the more critical. With lamb grids seemingly edging higher […]
A marginally bullish WASDE brings no gains
The July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report produced by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) was much anticipated, with most pundits expecting increasing supplies. What they got was increased demand. With the US winter wheat harvest well underway, passing halfway last week, they are starting to get a good idea of […]
Some surprising numbers in sheep survey data
The Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) and Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) Sheep Producer Intentions Survey (SPIS) was released last week, and the results were interesting, to say the least. The finding for breeding flock size seems to be lagging a little, and the flock structure, contrary to sentiment. The size of the sheep flock seems […]
Peace of mind for a little cost
We normally think of managed funds as the “smart money”, but sometimes they do get it wrong. Last week was a prime example. The funds were caught out with sizable short positions on wheat, as the market surged higher on the outbreak of war in Ukraine. The opportunity in the roller coaster ride that is […]
It’s a deal, it’s a steal it’s the sale of the century
‘Sale of the century’ might be a bit of an overreach, but it is a great line from a classic movie. This week, we’re looking at the spread between lambs, sheep, and cattle, with ovine stock reaching the limits of their premium to cattle. While sheep, lambs, and cattle are not direct substitutes, they are […]
Conflict boosting grain prices
Global tensions are great for grain prices, but not at all good for input costs for grain growers. The issues in Iran have seen oil prices rally, taking oilseeds and grains with them. Here we take a look at the short-term impacts. The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report, released two weeks […]
Strong lamb prices to last until spring hits
The term ‘off the charts’ is commonly used to describe all sorts of results, be it the price of gold, hype around Collingwood, or interest in Morwell court cases. In recent times lamb, and to a lesser extent mutton, prices have been literally ‘off the charts’, forcing analysts to adjust the y-axis on their excel […]
Barley taking ground from canola
Last week we took a look at the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) forecasts for Australian wheat production. This week we put the other major winter crop commodities under the microscope. Microscope is not really the right term, it’s more like binoculars, such is the broad stab ABARES have at […]
Raining upside for young cattle?
It doesn’t rain grass, but with the long weekend, rain does offer some light at the end of the tunnel for southern livestock producers. With the rain likely to put a rein on supply, and export demand still rampant, prices can only go one way in the short term. The rain over the last week […]
Eastern and western wheat see production drop
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) released its June Crop Report last week, which gives us the first look at forecasts for the coming winter cropping season. At first glance, the ABARES forecasts for the Australian wheat crop in 2025-26 look a little overblown. Wheat plantings are expected to be […]
No drought premium for grain
You know the drought is getting serious when politicians start turning up on farms, making announcements. This drought is different from what the East Coast normally experiences, and markets are not behaving in a normal fashion. When we talk about drought in Australia, it is usually regarding vast areas of inland New South Wales and […]
How long will the peak last
Lamb prices were literally off the charts last week. You know the market is doing extraordinary things when you have to increase the scale on the Y axis. The query we received over the weekend was: What do the current record values mean for prices in the spring and summer, when many drought-stricken producers will […]
