No joy for growers in the WASDE
It’s somewhat of a paradox for grain producers, that in order for prices to rise in the short term, production downgrades would need to be inflicted on growers somewhere in the world. This month, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report has delivered no potential for production downgrades. Therefore, producers here will experience relatively […]
Northern rain and the cost of freight
The forecast is looking promising for vast parts of Queensland and Northern NSW for the coming week. If you are looking for rain, of course. Rain will impact supply, and the price of diesel is high again, so it’s time to take another look at price spreads. Rainfall patterns continue to defy the El Nino […]
Fuel costs hitting at both ends
Grain markets continue to struggle for direction, and with rain securing some strong yields across the south of the country – it’s time to look at harvest pricing. After the price spike on the back of concerns surrounding Black Sea supplies, global wheat markets have eased in recent weeks. Figure 1 shows that while CME […]
Lessons from weekly slaughter
The saying that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes, is certainly applicable to livestock markets. Having just seen the lowest September lamb slaughter in five years, we went looking for lessons from the last time supply was this weak in early spring. With the eagerly awaited sheep projections and a look at long-term sheep […]
Projecting the herd to decline
Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) released their Australian Cattle Industry Projections last week, and like any forecasts, they can become out of date relatively quickly. The forecast is for gradual herd contractions and associated cattle supply tightening. This is provided seasons behave as expected, of course. Historically high and rising slaughter levels have had herd […]
Canola remains the shining light
Canola prices remain the shining light for croppers, with prices having moved back to peaks seen earlier in the year. As usual, local markets are being driven by international values, but the widening gap makes harvest selling decisions a little more difficult. Australia is on track to produce its third largest canola crop on record, […]
Hay Hay it’s harvest day (nearly)
Hay and silage season is upon us, and the market is in a vastly different state to this time last year. Here we take a look at fodder and feed grain markets and assess the value of perhaps locking in feed early. This time last year the hay market was coming off the most extraordinary […]
Lamb demand growth showing up in production
In Australia, and to a lesser extent in New Zealand, local supply strongly affects price because they provide almost all the Lamb available to export markets. Economics tells us that if we can measure supply and price, we can get a handle on demand, and this week we take a look at demand from a […]
A significant confluence brings resistance
Recent weeks have seen a significant milestone hit for those who like looking at cattle price data. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) and the Frozen Cow 90CL Export Beef Indicator have reached parity. If nothing else, it means resistance to higher prices is coming. Figure 1 shows the EYCI and the 90CL meeting in […]
Where should barley be compared to wheat
Barley markets are often the forgotten sibling of the big three winter crop commodities. Wheat is the benchmark, canola the glamorous and expensive newcomer, while barley tends to tick along in the background until things get tight. In recent weeks barley markets have been easing, despite an international rally in wheat, and a bit more […]
A good bump in winter crop production
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) released their September Crop Report last week. The good season to date across much of Australia’s winter cropping zone has Australia forecast to produce ample supplies. The September crop report showed some movement in wheat plantings between states, but overall, this equated to just […]
Trading lamb equations
Spring has hit, and more new season lambs are coming to market, but prices remain very strong. The restocker lamb indicator kicked last week, with supply seemingly an issue for those looking for lambs to grow out or feed. Here we take a look at whether store prices might be too good to hold stock. […]