Light lambs still headed to the Middle East

It’s been four months since we had a look at the much-talked-about Middle Eastern lamb export market. With the export data for the first two months of the year, along with slaughter weights for the December quarter, it’s time to again assess how many lambs have exited the market early. Figure 1 shows lamb exports […]

Wheat and canola heading in different directions

The hedging window for next season is closing for wheat, and at current levels, there are probably not too many growers rushing to do anything. Canola has found some strength in recent times and defied wheats’ drift lower. The depressing factors for wheat prices keep coming.  While prices have been dragged lower by corn, wheat […]

Slaughter is up but cattle still too cheap

With Meat and Livestock Australia’s (MLA) Cattle Industry Projections dropping last week it gives us our first look at what cattle supply might look like for the rest of the year and into coming years. Cattle supply is not the only driver of cattle prices, but it is a key one, and when we combine […]

Better than expected Sorghum crop to pressure prices

Sorghum

The March Crop Report released by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) rarely changes much from December for winter crops, unless it is a real bumper. This year is no different, but it’s the increase in summer crop production that is likely to pressure the feed market. There were some […]

Flock growth is over

Lamb slaughter in 2023 and 2024 is literally off the chart. That is to say, we had to adjust the ‘Y’ scale to accommodate the actual for 2023 and the ongoing forecasts. Here we take a look at Meat and Livestock Australia’s (MLA) latest sheep ‘Industry Projections’. Massive jumps in sheep and lamb slaughter in […]

Will the Canola decline continue in 2024-25?

With canola prices in decline for the past two harvests, and planting preparations beginning, many growers will be wondering what is in store for canola. Forecasting harvest prices at this time of year is fraught with danger, but we can look at supply fundamentals and forecasts to get an idea of direction. Canola is part […]

Shifting grain export markets

Grain export information is often limited to anecdotal information around the pace of exports. There is data available from the Australian Bureau of Statistic (ABS), although a few months behind. We can take a look at how markets have shifted in recent years. Australia has produced a lot of wheat in recent years, and exporters […]

It looks like a static herd well below historical highs

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) quarterly ‘Livestock Products’ report was released last week. The ABS data gives us year-ending official data on numbers of cattle slaughtered, beef produced, and importantly where the herd is headed. Figure 1 shows quarterly cattle slaughter and the year-on-year change. The December quarter is usually lower than September, with […]

Riding the ovine rollercoaster

Lamb and mutton markets have been a wild ride over the last 12 months. Unexpected seasonal events have given heavy swings in supply and a massive range in prices. Here we take a look at if, and when the market might settle, and importantly, what level that might be. The wild range of the lamb […]

Looking for opportunities in a bear market

Grainfield

Grain markets appear to absorbing the negative news at the moment, but we are only early in the growing season for many northern hemisphere crops. Here we update key markets and look for opportunities. With grain production forecasts increasing, more and more pressure comes onto prices.  As outlined in last Friday’s market comment (read here), […]

Southern young cattle good value?

Cattle prices don’t always move in the same direction every week, but over the long haul, there are plenty of reasons why different cattle categories in different locations trend up and down together over time. This week we’ll look at geographical price spreads, which are creating opportunities for some. Summer has finally kicked in the […]

Market jitters could benefit Australian growers

A couple of weeks ago we took a look at feed grain prices, showing how strong world corn supplies were depressing global feed values, and hence feed grain prices here in Australia. With murmurs of a potential La Nina, it will be US corn and soybean crops that suffer, here we look at how this […]