Canola resisting the big soybean crop
The United States Department of Agriculture is forecasting a record soybean crop in the US, as large plantings and good growing conditions continue to see forecast production grow. Soybeans are one of the largest contributors to the ‘oilseed complex’, so we should see canola price ease, right? Prices have been on the decline with forecasts […]
Not all restocker lambs are equal
Of course not all restocker lambs are equal. In this sense, we are looking at restocker lamb indicators and trying to decipher which we should be tracking. A lot of lambs go into the National Restocker Lamb Indicator, but you can pull the data apart for a closer match to what we are actually selling. […]
The herd is on the turn
We knew cattle slaughter was on the rise, and the official numbers released last week showed an interesting breakdown of what is being slaughtered. We are at a point in the herd cycle where male slaughter remains relatively steady, and it’s what happens with female slaughter that shows producer intentions for the herd. A quick […]
Wheat price management
While growers don’t like to see wheat prices making new milestones to the downside, for consumers it can create opportunities. This is when grain consumers can protect their prices, managing values at what are now four-year lows. The northern hemisphere harvest, increasing corn and soybean crop prospects, weaker demand, and improving southern hemisphere crop conditions […]
Eating into the flock
Lamb and sheep slaughter almost always declines at this time of year. The changeover period between old and new season lambs has processors slowing down for maintenance and this year is no different. Despite this, year-to-date slaughter is significantly higher, which begs the question as to where these lambs are coming from. Lamb slaughter has […]
Tight supply but where are the bulls?
The August ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) was released last week, and it yet again gave us a tightening picture for wheat stocks. The market isn’t terribly interested in tightening stocks, as pricing continues to track sideways at the bottom of the recent range. As mentioned in Friday’s Weekly Comment, the United States […]
Big mutton discounts to lambs
With lamb markets close to historical highs, and supply tightening as we usually see in the winter, there is an expectation that mutton prices would also be strong. We know that while mutton is much stronger than this time last year, prices remain well below the five-year average. Export demand and restocker interest are seemingly […]
Canola supply concerns showing in the market
International canola prices have continued to bounce around in the face of fluctuations in seasonal growing conditions and harvest weather. Locally canola values haven’t been as volatile, as the trade comes to grips with a much drier than normal winter in key growing areas. ICE canola, which is based in Canada, has been the most […]
Profitable trading in lifting weaner prices
The last time we looked at cattle trading opportunities was back in May. Little has changed in terms of wider cattle values, but weaner cattle have seen demand spike in recent times. Hence we revisit our trading budget. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) and the National Feeder Steer (Figure 1) remain closely aligned, and […]
Pulse plantings on the rise
Pulses plantings are on the rise again, with the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) forecasting record production in 2024-25. It’s the high-value pulses that are seeing much of the lift. Pulses are an important part of cropping rotations in all major cropping regions. Different areas use different pulses, but this […]
US exports keeping a cap on lamb prices
Lamb exports to the US have recovered since the weaker levels of 2023. In terms of volume the US has never taken more of our lamb, and their share of our exports is strong. As such it’s worth looking at US lamb markets, to see if we have reached the limit for our lamb values. […]
ASX wheat holding on in the face of falling SRW
The weakness shown in international wheat prices recently has been well documented. The delivery of a good winter wheat harvest in the USA will always put downward pressure on prices, but it’s been coupled with increasing global stocks. The supply situation isn’t as rosy here, and it’s starting to show in our price premium. The […]
