Argentina dealt a cruel hand
It has been a relatively benign week in the wheat market. Some of the risk premium that had built up over Middle East concerns has dissipated at the time of writing. This has been most evident in the price of crude oil which briefly peaked at US$92/barrel but has now retraced to US$82/barrel. The dip […]
USDA offers up a vanilla slice
Last night, the market rolled back on itself after the USDA printed a very vanilla April WASDE (World Ag Supply & Demand Estimates) report. With most of the focus on South America, the trade had expected the USDA to make some cuts to both Brazilian and Argentine production. However, the USDA saw fit to hold […]
USDA uncovers a big hole
Last week, I finished off the weekly market comment by saying “ Unless the USDA surprises with a sharper-than-expected reduction in corn area, I suspect the trade are pretty well positioned.” Surprise, surprise, the USDA report released last Friday did end up a market mover. While US wheat and soybean area were right on the […]
USDA overshadows trouble and strife
The wheat market started off this week with renewed concerns in the Black Sea arena. After violence in the form of terrorist attacks in Russia and retaliations dominated headlines. Russia is also clamping down on some of its own private export companies After kicking out foreign-owned trading houses and seizing their assets, TD Rif – […]
Hopes rising or a false dawn?
The wheat market was able to post some modest gains for the week with geopolitics, weath-er and some technical short covering adding support. Oilseeds too, found support after Eu-rope’s excessively wet winter and concerns around a dry Canada and reduced area expecta-tions. Fund managers have also been proactive in reducing their large, short (sold) positions […]
Russia ramping up exports
Wheat has trended sideways for the week as the market looks for future direction. The general consensus is for continued pressure as Russia amps up its export program all the while their FOB values continue to fall. The WASDE report out last week provided some distraction as the USDA both upped global wheat production (bearish) […]
The Russian Bear Market
If you find yourself perplexed by the current state of the wheat market, you are not alone. The most widely traded wheat class, US SRW, is also arguably in the most bullish of positions. US supplies are at 25% stocks to use, the lowest in ten years. Ex-ports are up 22% from a year ago, […]
Hurry up and wait
The wheat futures market finished virtually unchanged for the week. We should prob-ably consider this a win as corn and beans keep making new lows but also a falling world cash price (wheat) as exporters fight tooth and nail for the limited demand out there. In the US, corn prices are now below the cost […]
Wheat is a problem looking for solutions
For all the doomsday prophecies around the outlook for commodities, this week wheat managed to stage something of a recovery, albeit a modest bounce. The heavy selling that followed the release of the USDA Outlook data appears now to have been arrested. As we roll into March, we will start to enter into something of […]
Talk is cheap
The USDA recently held their global outlook forum, a two-day conference to release forecasts for domestic US and global supply, demand, and prices. Word on the street is that prices across the ag complex will remain under pressure for 2024. The USDA recently held their global outlook forum, a two-day conference to release forecasts for […]
Another nail in the coffin?
Last night the USDA released their February WASDE report. The focus was mainly on South American production, which was cut, but nowhere near as much as the trade thought. Coupled with building US wheat stocks, the report was viewed as another bearish nail in the commodity coffin. Global ending stocks were trimmed slightly on improved […]
Wheat in the eye of the storm
After last week’s USDA report and the bearish response to corn and beans, the wheat market has largely traded sideways. There was some good news with US wheat exports far exceeding the weekly expectations and news that French origin wheat was included in an Egyptian tender. However, with corn still in a tailspin, wheat was […]
