Trump wielding tariffs like a conductor’s baton

The first few weeks of the new Trump administration have not failed to disappoint. In the commodity space, the blunt force of tariff threats had the desired effect with the quick submission of the Governments of Canada and Mexico on the issue of border security. The end result has seen commodity markets rebound as the […]
US Tariff’s back on the agenda

Another interesting week in global markets and politics. After making oddly specific threats of tariffs against China, Canada and Mexico in Trump’s first few hours of coming to office, the lack of news since then gave hope that any immediate action might be watered down. However, as of this morning, on the eve of the […]
Trade flows on the move?

The news this week has been dominated by the incoming 47th US President. For those waiting for a sign of things to come, didn’t have to wait long. Aside from reinstating TikTok and changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, the new President has made good on his promise […]
Will Trump 2.0 be the next Y2K?

A few weeks ago, we wrote that the world’s corn stocks were getting worryingly tight. Earlier this week, the USDA tightened them even further by cutting US corn yields after a dry-ish finish to their season. The report cut US corn ending stocks by 7mmt, significantly below traders’ expectations. Soybean stocks were also cut below […]
Make it make sense

Week on week, the wheat market has managed to stay pretty much exactly where it was – unchanged despite a raft of big data being released. The USDA’s World Agricul-tural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) trimmed global corn stocks based on higher demand, but largely left wheat and soybeans unchanged. It is when you drill […]
Wheat finely balanced as weather impacts milling wheat

Another week of roughly sideways trading in the wheat market. There have been some minor adjustments to crop size, but the weight of selling as the Northern Hemi-sphere farmer gets their cash flow needs met before Christmas, is largely keeping a lid on prices. A report out of Moscow this week indicates that the Russian […]
Words can hurt

Wheat markets have been relatively quiet this week. The unrest in the Black Sea barely rates a mention anymore, the Middle East seems to be sorting itself out, the Northern Hemisphere crop is all but in the bin, so now we wait for Australian and Argentinian crops to come in. The Australian crop has a […]
Black Sea front and centre again

Another escalation in tension in the Ukraine – Russia conflict occurred with the Biden administration approving the use of US long-range weapons. The rapidly changing situation in the Black Sea continues to create uncertainty in global economic trade, especially for agricultural commodities. As a result, we are starting to see some war risk premium built […]
Was the USD on your bingo card?

After a couple of weeks of trading sideways, the wheat market snapped and plunged lower, breaking through the psychological level of support at 560c/bu and now look-ing to test the next level of support at 520c/bu. This time the catalyst was some welcome rains throughout the US wheat belt, just in time to see some […]
Will policy match the rhetoric?

Seems the bookies were right. Not for the Cup – they couldn’t have been further away – but for the US Election. Perhaps the only surprise is that it was never close, with Trump winning the electoral college count and the popular count by several million ballots. Now the Republicans have control of the Senate […]
The answer is blowin’ in the wind

It has been a bumpy week in the wheat market. The events driving the choppy price action have been somewhat conflicting, typical of a confused market. A poor initial crop condition score for the US winter wheat crop initially saw prices jump, only to be hammered lower by a forecast of some much-needed rain in […]
Mixed signals and bad poetry

The wheat market is trying to balance the news coming out of Russia. On one hand, SovEcon has released its outlook for the Russian 2025 season at a relatively modest 80.1mmt, down year on year on year. On the other hand, Russian exports look set to break another export record for October at 4.8mmt, setting […]