Wheat is a problem looking for solutions

Wheat plants _ image

For all the doomsday prophecies around the outlook for commodities, this week wheat managed to stage something of a recovery, albeit a modest bounce. The heavy selling that followed the release of the USDA Outlook data appears now to have been arrested. As we roll into March, we will start to enter into something of […]

Talk is cheap

WA wheat field

The USDA recently held their global outlook forum, a two-day conference to release forecasts for domestic US and global supply, demand, and prices. Word on the street is that prices across the ag complex will remain under pressure for 2024. The USDA recently held their global outlook forum, a two-day conference to release forecasts for […]

Another nail in the coffin?

wheat paddock

Last night the USDA released their February WASDE report. The focus was mainly on South American production, which was cut, but nowhere near as much as the trade thought. Coupled with building US wheat stocks, the report was viewed as another bearish nail in the commodity coffin. Global ending stocks were trimmed slightly on improved […]

Wheat in the eye of the storm

Wheat plants _ image

After last week’s USDA report and the bearish response to corn and beans, the wheat market has largely traded sideways. There was some good news with US wheat exports far exceeding the weekly expectations and news that French origin wheat was included in an Egyptian tender. However, with corn still in a tailspin, wheat was […]

Red Sea Risk

Ship with shipping containers

Global trade and commerce are again being compromised by political instability. The Hamas-led atrocities on the 7th October inside Israel have precipitated a wider conflict in the Middle East which is threatening to spill outside of the region. The region in question is the world’s most important trading route, carrying goods and commodities from oil […]

Commodities yanked lower by USDA

Australian wheat farm

The US wheat market started the week closed for the observance of the Martin Luther King Memorial public holiday. It is probably just as well that we had some a break between trading and last Friday’s USDA report being digested. The headline screamed ‘bullish wheat’ because the report stated that the US winter wheat area […]

Winter is for bears

Wheat field Australia

The wheat market has started the New Year as it finished it. International tenders are still being dominated by cheap Black Sea supplies and there’s a lack of any real bull-ish drivers to take over. Any bullish event is quickly assessed for the potential to be an immediate threat or something to watch later. If […]

Buy, bye

Someone forgot to feed the bulls. After a solid buying spree, China has stopped pick-ing up the phone. Having purchased 1.9mmt of US SRW wheat, the wheat market surged 80c/bushel. For reference, China usually buys 100-200kmt of SRW per year. Since last Friday however, the flash sales have stopped and the market quickly retraced from […]

Wheat finds its feet

US wheat field rain

Wheat is doing something highly unusual. It is going up. Having withered on the vine for the best part of 12 months, wheat has finally found a bid. Following on from some flash sales last week, China has continued this theme and is believed to have bought over 1mmt of US SRW and some HRW […]

Wheat weaves its tangled web

Did Australian weather just move the market’s needle? After weeks of the market edging lower and lower (we hit multi-year lows earlier this week with the AUD futures falling below $300/t), we have seen three straight ‘up’ sessions. The reason is likely a little more nuanced than simply the rain in Southeast Australia. This week, […]

This wheat market is a real turkey

Wheat head closeup in a field

The wheat market hit multi-month lows this week after continued pressure from cheap Black Sea supplies and relief in the form of rain across parched soybean fields in Brazil. The dip in the market has encouraged buyers out from under their collective rock Last night the US markets were closed for their Thanksgiving public holiday.  […]

Soybeans pull the plug

After such a bright start to the week, the wheat market has again given way to bad habits. The precursor to the leg-up was ongoing hot and dry conditions in Brazil. The soybean planting has stalled as unfavourable conditions in the key state of Matto Grosso and others were raising concerns that the world’s number […]