New Year, old themes
2026 has opened with a familiar driver dominating the headlines: geopolitics. Forget Russia, Venezuela or Greenland, developments in Iran arguably carry far greater implications for commodity markets. Iran is not only a significant producer of oil and fertilisers, but also a major wheat importer. The protests currently unfolding are not without precedent. However, renewed threats […]
Argy production to push price bar lower?
With little fresh direction, wheat prices have continued to follow the path of least resistance, grinding lower. After almost four years of entrenched conflict in Ukraine, renewed talk of a potential peace deal has begun to circulate. True to form, markets have reacted by stripping out some risk premiums; particularly in wheat and crude oil […]
Price pressure as production picks up
A week or so ago, I wrote how ‘big crops get bigger’. True to form, the trend continues. This week, StatsCan updated their production data and revealed what the trade and the farmer all knew — the 2025 crop was a record. StatsCan reported a record canola crop of 21.8mmt, 2.56mmt more than last year’s […]
Thanksgiving caps a flat week
Another ‘geopolitic’ type of week, with little fundamental news but lots of political intrigue to keep the market ticking over. News that the US President had issued a 28-point peace plan to finally end the dispute in Ukraine was met with wheat prices initially tumbling on optimism that an end was nigh. The fall stalled […]
Big crops tend to get bigger
Any hope that wheat bulls had of building a springboard to bounce higher was dashed by last week’s USDA report. The report, including the WASDE global S and D, 43 days in the making, print-ed higher production and higher carryout stocks. Most relevant to us were the wheat numbers. Improved production estimates in Argentina, Russia, […]
Markets on the sidelines ahead of USDA report
The market is holding its breath as it eagerly awaits the release of the first USDA report in over 40 days. The US Government shutdown has held up key stocks and trade data, leaving many in the trade relatively blind. Soybeans are the commodity that is being closely watched. It is caught between underlying yield […]
Rally fades as reality sets in
Since last week’s superpower meeting, the ag market has gone on something of a tear. Wheat was up 30¢/bu, corn up 5¢/bu and soybeans up 58¢/bu. Wheat has benefited from recent rumours of Chinese purchasing interest, but it was soybeans that always had the most to gain should China re-enter the US market. And so […]
Oilseed markets find support as US–China trade talks progress
This week’s meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi largely lived up to expectations, we think. High on the agenda, and one of the most closely watched trade topics, was soybeans. Since the onset of the US–China trade dispute during Trump’s second term, China has largely avoided buying US soybeans, sourcing instead from neighbouring Brazil. The […]
Trade tensions, sanctions and silence from the USDA
Without the usual run of USDA trade data to generate headlines, the wheat market has been rela-tively subdued this week. In the absence of meaningful fundamentals, politics has once again tak-en the wheel in driving market direction. Early in the week, attention was focused on renewed trade tension between the US and China. Following last […]
Politics back in the driver’s seat
It never ceases to amaze how quickly politics can turn market sentiment. This week, the slumbering trade dispute between the US and China flared back to life after Beijing announced new export restrictions on rare earths and retaliatory port fees on US-flagged vessels. What had been months of tentative improvement in relations quickly unravelled in […]
Wheat’s false start as Russian cuts spark
There was a brief spark in the wheat market overnight after Russia’s Deputy Agriculture Minister revealed that the country’s sown wheat area for the 2026 season is expected to fall 6.2% to 28.2 million hectares. Prices below the cost of production in many regions are clearly starting to bite. In what should have been a […]
Stocks, shutdowns, and surprises
Another week gone, another week dictated by happenings in the US. This week, the USDA published its September US stocks report. Both corn and wheat stocks were raised above pre-report estimates, which saw prices tumble. The increase is attributed to higher yields, especially in the winter wheat classes. Corn carryout is now tipped to be […]