North hemisphere harvest fuels the bears.

Biofuel storage and crops

The wheat market has resumed its strong bearish theme this week as harvest pres-sure, improving US crop conditions and technical selling all combined to push the market lower. Russian FOB wheat prices continue to slide as exporters try to stimulate demand. The Russian export program for July shows only 2.5mmt compared to 4.2mmt the previous […]

The wheat ride far from over

The market appears to be uncertain which direction to move. Early harvest results are mixed creating some uncertainty, but the arrival of new crop into the pipeline is providing an undoubtedly bearish influence. As a result, CBOT futures are relatively unchanged for the week. Russia remains an enigma. Despite all the talk of damage to […]

Imports breathe life into wheat

Wheat field Australia

Having fallen sharply for the month of June, the wheat market enjoyed something of a bounce last night. Having hit seasonal lows, the price seemed too good to ignore with several new import tenders being announced. The tenders give a wealth of insight into consumer and exporter behaviour. Two weeks ago, Egypt’s GASC issued a […]

Slippery slide for wheat

It is a ‘cut and paste’ type of report this week. The wheat market continues to be dragged lower by abundant old crop supplies and the glut of new crop coming in the pipeline. The market has effectively given back all of the gains made when Russian production was being cut. As the weather moderated and […]

Ignore the bears at your peril

Wheat head closeup in a field

The rot has well and truly set in for the wheat market. Since the seasonal highs were hit at the end of May, the CBOT Dec contract has lost 80c/bu – or roughly AUD$40/t. The finger is being pointed at an early start to the harvest in the Northern Hemisphere and news that Turkey was […]

Bears in the new crop

This week has been all about the impending Northern Hemisphere harvest hitting the pipelines. Despite a raft of supportive news, the noise was drowned out by the prospect of new crop harvest. In many respects, wheat has been driving the ag commodity markets recently on deteriorating crop prospects in Russia. This had been fully priced […]

India a demand dark horse

This week has seen the wheat market jump on cuts to Russian production, only to give most of the gains back as rains appeared in the forecast to stabilise the crop. Various crop analysts started to ratchet the Russian crop back from 93mmt to today being somewhere around 81 – 83mmt due to the well […]

From Russia, with love again

Wheat crop blowing in the wind

Make no mistake. This wheat market is all about Russia. The month of May (to date) has seen CBOT rally 17% or nearly 90USc/bu as first dryness in the Russian south (Caucuses) region and then a series of frosts through the Central regions, took a bite out production forecasts. It has wiped about 8mmt off […]

Jack tours Russia

To start the week, the wheat market got a very nice little push courtesy of Russian frosts, a bullish USDA report and technical short covering. As covered in this week’s analysis, the USDA released their May WASDE report (read more here). In summary, 2024/25 wheat and corn stocks fell well below previous estimates while soybeans […]

Weather bingo card

After the relatively quiet last few months where the ag commodity markets have drift-ed lower, the establishment of the weather market has seen a welcome return to some volatility. The too-dry Russian Caucuses, on-again, off-again rains in Russia, a wet France and floods in Brazil, have certainly breathed some life back into the markets.  This […]

Time to cut the BOM some slack

Wheat field Australia

Another week, another very mixed result. Last week, Middle Eastern politics drew the market’s attention, this week it’s all about the weather. Russia looked to receive some very welcome precipitation across the dry North and South Caucuses (basically the key southern winter wheat region). It was the building moisture deficits that had been starting to […]

Geopolitics and shorts weather

Australian wheat farm

Amazing the difference a week can make. It all started last Friday morning, with continued escalations in the Middle East. The wheat market jumped 20 odd cents (US c/bushel) quickly, or nearly 5%, over concerns that the conflict would quickly spiral out of control. The lack of an immediate response tells us that an uneasy […]