The answer is blowin’ in the wind

It has been a bumpy week in the wheat market. The events driving the choppy price action have been somewhat conflicting, typical of a confused market. A poor initial crop condition score for the US winter wheat crop initially saw prices jump, only to be hammered lower by a forecast of some much-needed rain in […]

Mixed signals and bad poetry

Australian wheat farm

The wheat market is trying to balance the news coming out of Russia. On one hand, SovEcon has released its outlook for the Russian 2025 season at a relatively modest 80.1mmt, down year on year on year. On the other hand, Russian exports look set to break another export record for October at 4.8mmt, setting […]

Time is of the essence

Having teased us with a brief rally, the market has fallen back to its old playbook – sell the forward months and clip the ticket on the way through. By this I mean, the technical traders are looking at the forward ‘carry’ – ie future months are more expensive than the current ‘spot’ month – […]

Welcome back Volatility, my old friend

Are we are witnessing a full blown fundamental rally, or a technical repositioning of short positions? The answer could be both, as one will lead the other. The fundamental nature of supply out the Black Sea versus the money managers willing to wager a falling price. The problems being faced in the South and Central […]

It’s life Jim, just not as we know it

Close up image of wheat heads

Are there signs of life in the wheat market? Wheat has struggled for direction in the past few months namely because of Northern Hemisphere harvest pressure, but secondly the perceived lack of demand, especially from China. As mentioned in last week’s wrap up, there is mounting concern in the market about the slow pace of […]

Wheat puzzle still has pieces missing

Header harvesting grain

The wheat market has struggled for direction this week. Some technical selling emerged to start the week, erasing the previous weeks gain. Since then, wheat prices have wandered aimlessly looking for a new storyline to give it a nudge. There are a few bullish stories that remain in the background. The key southern winter wheat […]

Russia, USDA and a Rock wall

NSW harvesting wheat crop

Picture if you will, a rock climber, gradually, step by step, grasp by grasp, pulling themselves up the face of a sheer rock wall. This is what the wheat market has been doing this week, making small incremental climbs over the space of the past week, rising up from the multi-year lows seen in late […]

China’s canola curve ball

Canola field

The wheat market has enjoyed something of a bounce this week. Having briefly touched multi-year lows of 525c/bu for the Dec ’24 contract last week, last night’s close of 574c/bu was a welcome sight for farmers. Fundamentally, not much has changed other than a few minor adjustments to global supply & demand (as discussed last […]

Harvest quality plagues wheat

Dry field

Having briefly flirted with prices below 500c/bu, the CBOT Dec ’24 contract is relatively unchanged week on week after some minor adjustments were made to Canadian, French and German production. This week’s lift in futures has been a welcome reprieve from what seems like a constant drain lower. For the month of August, CBOT Dec […]

Wheat weighed down by lack of demand

This week has been more of the same as wheat continues to spiral down the proverbial gurgler. The annual Profarmer tour of the US is confirming the market’s suspicion that this year’s corn and bean crops are going to be big. Supply is plentiful and demand remains subdued, with the Chinese X-factor remaining enigmatic at […]

Light at the end of tunnel possibly a train

The week started with a whimper and ended with a submissive shrug. An almost perceptible ‘meh’ permeated the CBOT wheat pit after the USDA report was released last Monday. The report printed lower production and ending stocks for wheat – which should have been bullish.  This was overshadowed by the record corn production figure and […]

Wheat stays afloat in volatile market

Australian wheat farm

The start of the week saw a strong financial market ‘correction’ as concerns were raised that the US was at risk of a recession and that China’s economic strength was under question While most of the affected economies recovered in the days following, the hit to crude oil rattled the oilseed complex.  Accompanied by an […]