AWTA core test volumes have begun 2026 well down on year-earlier levels, as the effects of a dry spring in south eastern Australia continue to play out in the new calendar year. This article takes a look at Australian wool supply.
In farm bale terms, the January AWTA core test volumes were down 20.9% (go to the excellent AWTA webpage for details (see more here) with broker receivals confirming the magnitude of this fall. Season-to-date volume is down 10.6%, which is less than the full season AWPFC projection (see more here) of 12.6% at this stage, with 56.6% of the clip normally tested by January. To meet the AWPFC forecast, wool volumes for February through June will need to fall 15% year on year.
Monthly volumes can vary due to seasonal conditions and holidays (Easter drifts between March and April). To get around this, it is easier to look at three-month smoothed volumes and the changes in these volumes. Figure 1 breaks the Australian clip into Western Australia and the east, looking at year-on-year percentage changes in the rolling three-month volumes by micron category. In Western Australia, seasonal conditions have been better, seen in the swing broader by fibre diameter. Sub-19 micron volumes are well down, and the broader merino micron categories are well up. In contrast, eastern volumes are all down, reflecting the downward pressure on sheep numbers, both merino and non-merino.
Figure 2 repeats the analysis of Figure 1, looking at the change in farm bales rather than percentage terms. This schematic shows how the swing broader in Western Australia is having an outsize effect on the change in volume for 17 through 20 micron.
Finally, in Figure 3, the rolling three-month smoothed change in volume for eastern and Western Australia is shown from 2018 onwards, along with a weighted 12-month rainfall rank. Wool production has a much greater chance of increasing when the rainfall rank is high (increased sheep numbers and increased clean fleece weights), with the reverse also true. The weighted rainfall rank has oscillated between 30% and 40% during 2024 and 2025, not as bad as 2018–2019 when the rainfall rank ranged between 10% and 20%. However, like all averages, the rainfall rank combines reasonable seasons in Western Australia and northern NSW/Queensland with very dry conditions for the Riverina and southwards. In addition, 2024 into 2025 was a period of low wool prices and sheep meat prices rising to record levels, a combination which has put extreme downward pressure on flock size.
Whether AWTA volumes fall by 15% for the February to June period is going to depend mainly on sheep numbers, as seasonal conditions and the change in fibre diameter indicate a mild drop in clean fleece weights. The merino average fibre diameter for January was down 0.15 micron, indicating a fall in clean fleece weight of around 3%. This implies the flock size has to be down by 12% (already) if the AWPFC is to be met.
What does it mean?
In 2024 and 2025 a combination of seasonal conditions, low wool prices and much higher sheep meat prices have put strong downward pressure on sheep numbers and also clean fleece weights. This is clearly playing out in wool volumes, although as usual, the impact varies between micron categories. Given all of this the AWPFC forecast seems quite reasonable.
Key Points
- Eastern AWTA volumes are down across all micron categories, while in Western Australia the merino clip is swinging broader on the back of improved seasonal conditions in 2025.
- For the AWPFC full season forecast of a drop in wool volumes of 12.6%, the Australian flock has to have shrunk by 12%.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: AWTA, Silo, ICS, Mecardo
