Last week we looked at the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) September Crop Report in terms of wheat yields and production forecasts. This week we look at the other ‘big two’ winter crops, barley and canola.
The situation with barley and canola is similar to wheat when comparing the June Crop Report with the new figures. ABARES lifted yields for both barley and canola due to favourable winter conditions and positive forecasts for spring.
Figure 1 shows that ABARES expect Australian barley production to go very close to a new record this year. Barley production was revised up by 14% in the September report, largely on the back of increasing yield predictions in Victoria, NSW and WA.
ABARES are forecasting the national average yield to hit its second-highest level on record, at 3.05t/ha. This is still short of the record 3.43t/ha set in 2022-23, but it is expected to push total barley production to 14.55 million tonnes. The record production year remains 2020-21, when 14.64mmt was harvested on higher acreage but with lower yields.
Canola lost a little ground to barley this year but is expected to see slightly better yields, maintaining production at similar levels to last year. ABARES increased yield expectations in the major canola states — NSW, Victoria and WA — lifting forecast production by 19% on the June report.
Canola yields were lifted from 1.59t/ha to 1.89t/ha, still behind the record 2.1t/ha set in 2021-22 but remaining strong nonetheless. Figure 2 shows that canola production is not breaking any records this year but should go close to being the third-highest on record.
Total winter crop production is forecast to reach 62mmt in 2025-26, which would be the third-highest on record. To show the dominance of the big three, 54.7mmt, or 88% of the total, will be wheat, barley or canola.
What does it mean?
With a close to record barley crop, and weak global feed values, we would expect to see the barley discount to wheat to widen, and we have seen a little of that in recent weeks on the east coast.
Canola values are closely tied to the international roller coaster, with a majority of production exported. Growing production shouldn’t impact prices significantly.
Key Points
- The ABARES Crop Report lifted expected yields and production for barley and canola.
- Barley production is forecast to be close to an all time record.
- Stronger production could see barley prices ease as we move towards harvest.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: ABS, ABARES, Mecardo
