Last week we took a look at the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) forecasts for Australian wheat production. This week we put the other major winter crop commodities under the microscope.
Microscope is not really the right term, it’s more like binoculars, such is the broad stab ABARES have at crop production at this time of year. The very dry start to the season in southeastern cropping zones has seen ABARES cut canola cropping area, but a lift in WA sees the national acreage fall by just 1%.
With NSW canola acreage down 8%, Victoria down 5% and SA down 12%, national canola plantings are expected to hit a four year low. A 6% increase in WA canola plantings, due to good prices and a reasonable start to the season, almost fully compensates for east coast declines. WA plantings are larger than last year, but they are still a massive 19% behind the record set in 2022.
Canola yields are also forecast to be slightly lower, averaging 1.69t/ha nationally, down from 1.79 in 2024-25. This is largely due to ABARES forecasting lower yields in WA, moving back towards the average.
Smaller area and lower yields combine to have ABARES forecasting a 6% decline in canola production, to 5.7mmt, the smallest canola crop since 2020-21. On the east coast it will be the smallest since the drought year of 2019-20 (figure 1).
Barley is taking up canola’s area. Being a more forgiving, and cheaper crop to plant, barley acreage is expected to increase 2% on 2024-25, with increases in all states except NSW. In WA total cropping area is up, as the exodus from sheep continues. WA barley plantings are forecast to increase by 6%
Lower yields are forecast, nationally the average yield is forecast at 2.71t/ha, down from 2.87 last year. Weaker yields will see national barley production ease 3%. Figure 2 shows barley production will be at its lowest level since 2019-20, apart from the China tariff induced decline of 2023-24.
What does it mean?
Lower production is good for price, but like wheat, canola and barley production is expected to outstrip domestic demand and produce an exportable surplus. Canola has been price very well this year, and shrinking supplies should see the spread to international benchmarks narrow.
Key Points
- Canola plantings are forecast to be lower in 2025, with barley taking up some ground.
- Production of both canola and barley is expected to be down, with lower yields.
- Forecasts are for an exportable surplus of canola and barley.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
