Insatiable beef demand, combined with a continued sell-off of breeding stock, has seen Australian beef exports smash records in July. The previous high mark was set in June, but a quick look at the numbers has us looking for where all this beef has come from.
The raw numbers for July beef exports are impressive. Total beef exports of 150,435 tonnes, an increase of 12% on the June record, and 16% on last July. Before 2025, the next closest month for beef exports was 130,048 tonnes in October last year, before that it was 122,456 in October 2014.
Already in 2025, we have had five of the six largest export months on record. Figure 1 shows the rapid increase in beef exports over the past 18 months.
The 10% tariff on beef being exported to the US is having little or no impact on volumes. July saw the highest beef exports to the US for the year, 12% higher than in July 2024. No records for the US, but it was the second-highest month on record.
The big mover in recent months has been China. Figure 3 shows the speculation around issues with the US/China relationship, and increased demand for our beef has materialised. Beef exports to China were 90% higher than in 2024, but again not quite a record. That was set in late 2019 at levels 10% higher than in July.
Beef exports to Japan were close to average, while South Korea is running about 30% higher than average. Weaker US beef supplies are starting to bite, and seeing demand shift to Australia.
Cattle slaughter has been stronger this year, helping to drive increased exports. Slaughter is similar, however, to 2019, yet exports have been an extraordinary 32% higher. The rise and rise of lotfeeding, heavier weights, and declining domestic consumption are all contributing to an export boom.
A booming supply is supposed to depress prices, but beef operates in a global market. Weaker US production and trade issues with some major partners seem to have seen the cards fall in favour of Aussie beef. The latest export values for 90CL to the US are at a new record, 10% higher than last year.
What does it mean?
Hopefully, we’ll have some second quarter slaughter and production numbers soon, which will offer some guidance on what cattle are driving the export boom, and how heavy they were. This should give some insight into where the herd and prices are headed.
Key Points
- July saw record Australian beef exports, driven largely by the US and China.
- Demand is very strong, with lower global supplies and trade issues benefiting Australia.
- Such strong exports suggest herd liquidation, as we wait on slaughter and production data for confirmation.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: ABS, DAFF, MLA, Mecardo
