The first week of April brought with it big changes in global trade, instigated in the first instance by new tariffs from the US and escalated by retaliatory tariffs from some of their trading partners. But for now, Australian beef exports remained historically high in March. America remained Australia’s largest customer by volume with 30% of the market share, while renewed demand from China also carried on - they reclaimed their spot as the second largest market for Australian beef in February, overtaking Japan.
Australia exported more than 112,000 tonnes of beef in March, an increase of 5% year-on-year, and 19% more than the five-year-average for the month. Exports did fall from the previous month though, back 4%, which according to the average is not the norm, with March usually well up from February. That said, it was still likely to be the second highest March export volume on record for beef, only surpassed by 2015.
US importers didn’t take their foot of the gas in light of the looming tariffs, taking nearly twice as much Australian beef for March as the five-year-average. Year-to-date, they’ve imported 47% more than the same period last year, despite the US’s total beef imports only increasing by about 5% for the first three months of the year.
Domestically, American cattle prices are trending 10% or more higher than the same time last year, and the US imported lean beef price in Australian dollar terms is 16% stronger. Two weeks ago, their cow slaughter was 12,000 less year-on-year. Steiner Consulting Group reported the imported beef trade in the US effectively stalled last week when tariffs were announced, and the price for stock in cold storage started to increase.
Exports to China, currently the second largest market for Australian beef, also fell from the previous month, but again were at their second highest March level on record, only 2% below 2019. It was a year-on-year increase of 19%, and 18% above the five-year average. Year-to-date, China has imported 34% more than the average. As well as being Australia’s second largest market for beef, China is also America’s third largest market. US beef now receives a 56% tariff into China, and Steiner is reporting sales to China from the US have halted.
Japan is our only major market importing less Australian beef than they were last year, and for the first time in 2025, the March volume fell below the five-year-average. It was actually the lowest March volume to be sent to Japan for at least the past 15 years, and their market share has now fallen basically even with South Korea’s for the first time, both sitting on about 15%. Like the other top four, South Korea lost ground month-on-month in March, but remained above year-ago and average levels.
Domestically, our own extreme weather – flooding in parts of the north and drought in parts of the south – as well as plenty of public holidays this month, could impact supply and throughput in coming weeks. However, as export volumes show us, slaughter has also continued along its historically strong trend in March, sitting at above 130,000 head each week, and between 22% and 32% above the five year average.
What does it mean?
Supply and demand remains in favour of Australia when it comes to global beef trade, but new tariffs from the US and the retaliation from their trading partners – who are also our trading partners – is what will influence the direction of export volumes in coming months. Reports are that new dealings in the US have already ground to a halt, but both exporters and importers will want to make sure orders already booked do eventuate, so deals will be made – meaning volume wise, we might not see the impact as soon as this month. On the flip side, new limitations on trade between US and China could start to open doors for Australian product into that market sooner rather than later.
Key Points
- Australian beef export volumes close out March at historically high levels, still being spurred on by demand from the US and China.
- Year-to-date volumes are sitting 23% above last year, which ended up being a record year for beef exports.
- New global trade dynamics will start to come into play this month, as the US- China trade disputes escalates.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, Steiner Consulting Group, Mecardo
