Australian beef exports are still rocketing towards record territory as both supply and demand align. There were just shy of 119,000 tonnes of beef sent offshore in November, which was down slightly from the record-high monthly volume exported in October, but still within the top 10 highest monthly volumes recorded, and nearly 30% above the five-year average.
Key drivers have remained the same
throughout the year, with domestic weekly slaughter at historic highs and
demand primarily from the US climbing as their own cow slaughter fell.
The current calendar year record for beef
is 1.287 million tonnes exported in 2014, and for the year-to-date 1.216
million tonnes have been exported, according to monthly reported volumes. The
latest Meat & Livestock Australia cattle industry projection had beef
exports reaching 1.35 million tonnes shipped weight in 2024, an increase of 20%
on last year. It also forecasts this figure to continue climbing to 1.37
million tonnes in 2025.
Total Australian November beef exports were
up 21% on the same month in 2023. That same year-on-year figure for the US was
up by 44%. The US is currently taking up 29% of the market share, closing in on
the 31% share the market had when the record volume was set in 2014. While
year-to-date volumes to the US are still 1% below the same period in that
record year, the Steiner Reporting Group’s latest US imported beef market
report has Australian beef exports “all but guaranteed” to reach record highs
this year. To put the US situation into some perspective, in 2024 their total
exports will likely be down 3% year-on-year, while their total imports have
climbed 22.5%.
In other key markets this year, Japan is
below long-term historical highs but has received 18% more Australian beef for
the year-to-date than in 2023. The Global Beef Market Review put out by Steiner
in October reported that year-to-September domestic beef production was up 13%
year-on-year in Japan, but local stocks were still lower than the same time in
2023, while imported stocks were higher. Volumes from Australia to South Korea
are tracking at 5% stronger for the first 11 months of the year compared to
2023, despite market share dropping 2.5%.
Rounding out the top four markets is China,
whose market share of Australian beef has dropped to its lowest level since
2017. Volumes to China are 10% lower for the year-to-date compared to 2023, and
7% below five-year-average totals for the same period. Despite this, up until
September China’s total beef imports for the year were up by 3.4%, with volumes
from Brazil up 10%, and a significant increase from their smaller market
partners.
What does it mean?
Looking towards 2025, there are plenty of signs to support another possible increase of Australian beef export volumes. Estimates are that the US cow slaughter will be down 15% for 2024, and the outlook is that it will fall even further next year, further increasing demand for imported beef. This could potentially hiking the price up more too, as the domestic lean beef price in the US is already historically high.
Lower US production will also create more market opportunities for us in some other key countries, such as South Korea. With the Australian cattle herd now into a technical destocking phase, and slaughter forecast to rise again next year, supply shouldn’t be an issue.
Key Points
- Strong slaughter and demand continue to drive Australian beef export volumes towards a record year.
- The US is still the biggest beef market, but year-to-date hasn’t quite reached record levels set in 2014.
- China’s total beef imports are set to rise slightly in 2024, despite Australian product being down by 10% so far.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, Steiner Consulting Group, Mecardo
