A quick review of data coming out of the US comes with the conclusion that extreme global beef demand isn’t going anywhere for some time. Locally, there are some restrictions on growers taking advantage of the boom.
On Meat and Livestock Australia’s (MLA) website, you can find the Steiner weekly imported beef market report. The Steiner report is a good snapshot of what is happening in the US locally, and how it relates to demand for imported beef. The US was our largest export market for beef last year, so what happens in the US is important for our livestock markets.
The latest Steiner report talks about the competition Australia will see from Brazil due to the Chinese quotas. It also talks about how the US market is yet to really start its rebuild, and the increase in diversification of cuts being imported. Our exports to the US are no longer just lean trim, as the decline in US production has demand for other cuts on the rise.
The outlook for cattle and beef prices in the US remains strong, despite prices being at record levels. The US herd is extremely low, so fewer calves are being produced, and for the herd to be rebuilt, heifers and cows will have to be retained, further tightening the supply of slaughter cattle and beef.
Figure 1 shows the 90CL Frozen Cow indicator, along with finished cattle prices in Australia. Despite the lift in the Aussie dollar, the 90CL price in our terms remains at extreme levels. Our prices are still waiting for the next leg up, with finished cattle prices at very good levels, but well behind their US counterparts.
The limiting factor for cattle prices remains strong cattle supply relative to slaughter capacity. Figure 2 shows cattle slaughter was up in 2025, and well above the five-year average. There is some debate as to whether cattle slaughter is at maintenance levels, or if the herd is in decline.
The recently released Beef Producer Intentions Survey (BPIS) suggests that the herd has been growing, and producers are intending to grow it further in the coming year.
What does it mean?
For cattle producers to realise some more of the benefits of a global supply squeeze, we still need either cattle supply to wane, or slaughter capacity to lift. Based on the latest herd and supply data in the BPIS, it seems a cattle supply shortage is unlikely. There is some room in slaughter capacity to get back to the 155,000 head per week levels of 2025, but further increases might take some time.
Having said that, further increases in US beef and cattle prices should see some improvement in local cattle prices.
Key Points
- US beef supply remains weak, with a herd rebuild yet to begin in earnest.
- Cattle prices in Australia are finding resistance due to strong cattle supplies.
- Further improvements in price will require tighter supply, or increased slaughter.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
