ABARES released their March 2026 Agricultural Commodities Report last week and have revised most major figures higher for the current financial year. Gross value of cattle slaughter and live exports is likely to come in at a record $22.7 billion in 2025-26, compared to the $18.4 billion forecast in their December outlook. The value of beef and live cattle exports has also risen by $1.4 billion since December. These record-breaking figures mean the outlook for 2025-26 is lower year-on-year, but still historically strong.
The one thing not revised higher since December was the saleyard price of cattle. ABARES uses the annual average of MLA’s Heavy Steer and Processor Cow indicators to produce their ABARES Saleyard Indicator Price. They now forecast that price will end up having increased by 27% in the 2025-26 financial year, to an average of 775¢/kg. In December, the 2025-26 estimate was 785¢/kg on the back of US demand for lean trim. The latest outlook has the ABARES indicator losing 9% in 2026-27, to average 705¢/kg. They expect China’s new beef safeguard import measures, and an average to below-average rainfall outlook in southern Australia to push demand lower.
This lower price is forecast to lead to lower annual beef production across Australia in 2026-27 by 6% if cattle turn-off becomes less enticing for producers. ABARES predicted 2.6 million tonnes carcase weight of beef would still be 18% above the 10-year average. If there is less rain than the Bureau of Meteorology’s autumn rainfall outlook for southeastern Australia currently shows, production could remain a lot closer to where it is in 2025-26, with the difference being the females have already left the herd.
Lower production will lead to lower beef and live cattle export volumes and in turn, lower total value in the new financial year. Currently it is forecasted to be a record $19.8 billion in 2025-26 (a revision of $1.4 billion more than ABARES December 2025 outlook), and to fall 18% in 2026-27. The average annual beef export price is also expected to finish 2025-26 at a record high, before dropping 12% in 2026-27 to $10.30/kg. This decline will be driven by the lower demand out of China as mentioned, as well as a stronger Australian dollar.
Live cattle export value will only dip by 2% in 2026-27, however, as a forecast increase of 2% in numbers exported is offset by a 3% decline in average price for live feeder/slaughter cattle. Live cattle exports totalled 770,000 head in 2025, the highest figure since 2021 and above the five-year-average. Financial year-to-date live cattle numbers are sitting at 5% above the same period in 2024-25.
What does it mean?
ABARES expected figures for 2025-26 show resilience against the constantly changing domestic and global beef sector, including the weather. The outlook remains very positive for the coming year, with most elements still sitting above historical averages. Saleyard prices at the predicted 2026-27 level will be 1% above the 10-year-average in real terms, and that figure that will be fuelled by a resurgence in the domestic restocker market if widespread favourable conditions are experienced.
Key Points
- ABARES forecast record export beef value to be set in 2025-26, before the higher Australian dollar and Chinese tariffs push impact is felt in the new financial year.
- Lower Chinese beef demand will also push saleyard cattle prices down in 2026-27, after it rises an expected 27% in 2025-26.
- Live cattle trade numbers are predicted to rise in 2026-27, offsetting lower prices to maintain sector value.
Click on graph to expand
Click on table to expand
Click on table to expand
Data sources: Meat & Livestock Australia, ABARES, Mecardo
