Early in the week, Donald Trump posted on social media that “good, productive talks aimed at a complete resolution of the armed conflict” had taken place with Tehran. Markets reacted immediately. Commodities that had been trending higher, particularly crude oil and wheat—were aggressively sold off, with crude leading the move, dropping as much as 13%.
That sell-off proved short-lived. Late in the session, prices rebounded after Tehran flatly denied that any discussions with US officials had occurred. The back-and-forth— “negotiations are progressing” versus “what negotiations?”—has played out multiple times this week, injecting volatility into a market already seeking a clear fundamental direction.
I tried to write a column on Ag markets without mentioning the conflict in Iran, but it is the lead story in every market wire, to the detriment of nearly all other information. The world seems to be slowly coming to terms with another energy shock coming hot on the heels of the war in Ukraine.
Aside from the bottle neck in the Strait of Hormuz, the decision to relax sanctions on Russian oil seems to have been a catalyst to make Russian oil depots fair game. Per Reuters, Ukraine has allegedly targeted 40% of Russia’s export capacity in recent drone strikes. More countries are being added to the list banning exports of LNG and petroleum products. We are seeing ships carrying LNG and petroleum products get rerouted mid-course, including 6 of the 81 vessels of diesel that were supposed to be heading to Australia per Energy Minister Chris Bowen. Diesel is a hot commodity across Australia now and may be the bigger issue for Australian agriculture in the long run.
On the agricultural front, there are at least a few developments worth noting. Western Australia looks set for a favourable start to the season. Cyclone Narelle tracking down the WA coast is looking likely to deliver meaningful rainfall from Geraldton through to Esperance.
In the Black Sea, SovEcon has lifted its Russian wheat production estimate to 87mmt (+1.5mmt) and increased export projections for both the current and upcoming seasons. FOB values continue to firm, demand is strengthening, and Russia remains central to global wheat supply.
Meanwhile, US hard red winter regions are beginning to flash warning signs. Kansas, a key production state, recorded extreme heat this week – breaking many seasonal records for this time year – with temperatures reaching 38°C (100°F). Some western areas of the state have not recorded meaningful rain for the last 3 months. A few lucky eastern boundary areas picked up a few showers last fortnight, but with temperatures hitting mid-to-high 30C, they are going to need more than just showers.
Beware the Headlines
Early in the week, Donald Trump posted on social media that “good, productive talks aimed at a complete resolution of the armed conflict” had taken place with Tehran. Markets reacted immediately. Commodities that had been trending higher, particularly crude oil and wheat—were aggressively sold off, with crude leading the move, dropping as much as 13%.
That sell-off proved short-lived. Late in the session, prices rebounded after Tehran flatly denied that any discussions with US officials had occurred. The back-and-forth— “negotiations are progressing” versus “what negotiations?”—has played out multiple times this week, injecting volatility into a market already seeking a clear fundamental direction.
I tried to write a column on Ag markets without mentioning the conflict in Iran, but it is the lead story in every market wire, to the detriment of nearly all other information. The world seems to be slowly coming to terms with another energy shock coming hot on the heels of the war in Ukraine.
Aside from the bottle neck in the Strait of Hormuz, the decision to relax sanctions on Russian oil seems to have been a catalyst to make Russian oil depots fair game. Per Reuters, Ukraine has allegedly targeted 40% of Russia’s export capacity in recent drone strikes. More countries are being added to the list banning exports of LNG and petroleum products. We are seeing ships carrying LNG and petroleum products get rerouted mid-course, including 6 of the 81 vessels of diesel that were supposed to be heading to Australia per Energy Minister Chris Bowen. Diesel is a hot commodity across Australia now and may be the bigger issue for Australian agriculture in the long run.
On the agricultural front, there are at least a few developments worth noting. Western Australia looks set for a favourable start to the season. Cyclone Narelle tracking down the WA coast is looking likely to deliver meaningful rainfall from Geraldton through to Esperance.
In the Black Sea, SovEcon has lifted its Russian wheat production estimate to 87mmt (+1.5mmt) and increased export projections for both the current and upcoming seasons. FOB values continue to firm, demand is strengthening, and Russia remains central to global wheat supply.
Meanwhile, US hard red winter regions are beginning to flash warning signs. Kansas, a key production state, recorded extreme heat this week – breaking many seasonal records for this time year – with temperatures reaching 38°C (100°F). Some western areas of the state have not recorded meaningful rain for the last 3 months. A few lucky eastern boundary areas picked up a few showers last fortnight, but with temperatures hitting mid-to-high 30C, they are going to need more than just showers.
Next week
With ceasefire discussions uncertain with Iran, Black Sea tensions simmering, and a genuine production issue emerging in the US, wheat markets are being pulled higher. That said, it’s worth remembering just how quickly sentiment can shift. We are entering the most volatile phase of the season, where perceived threats to production often drive price action. Many of these risks may ultimately fade as the size and quality of the new crop become clearer.
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Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: Reuters, USDA, KSU, SovEcon, Next Level Grain Marketing, Bloomberg, Mecardo
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