Meat and Livestock Australia’s (MLA) September cattle industry projections have been dropped, and they paint an interesting picture in terms of the changing dynamics of cattle production in Australia. The herd is large, at a time of strong beef demand, but it brings elevated risk.
It might be time to throw out the old rule of the herd being in decline when females make up more than 47% of cattle being slaughtered (FSR). With the release of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) slaughter and beef production data, we had a very high FSR of 54.5% in the June quarter. The average for 2024-25 was 52.8%.
Historically, an FSR above 50% has seen the herd decline by 2-5%. Figure 1 shows MLA is forecasting a steady herd as of the 30th of June 2025, and steady again into 2026. Good seasons in northern cattle areas, where most of the cattle are, and improvements in productivity, in terms of marking rates, mean the herd can be maintained despite high female slaughter.
Dry conditions in the south will have also distorted female slaughter, with more dairy cows coming to market. Victoria has killed just 29,000 fewer females than Queensland in the year to date. For male cattle in Victoria, the number is 850,000 fewer.
MLA is forecasting cattle slaughter to peak in 2024-25 at 9.021 million head (Figure 2), which would be the second highest on record after 2013-14. Cattle slaughter is expected to decline in 2026 and 2027, which, given the steady herd, would suggest a decline in productivity is expected, with a return to average seasonal conditions in the north.
A basic measure of productivity is the estimated calf crop (ECC). The ECC is calculated by taking the change in the herd and adding slaughter and live export. This tells us how many cattle were added through natural increase. Figure 3 shows the ECC at 9.74 million head in 2024-25, the highest level since 2013-14.
Also, in Figure 3, we’ve shown the ECC to herd ratio, which, put simply, is the ECC divided by the herd size. We can see that estimates of calves produced this, relative to the size of the herd, are at the top of the historic range.
Three years in a row of an ECC to herd ratio above the average of 29% goes some way to explaining why so many females can be slaughtered, but the herd is maintained
What does it mean?
Increased productivity, driving the herd higher to take advantage of strong global beef demand, is all good news for cattle producers. A strong herd does, however, bring heightened downside risk. It is a matter of when, not if conditions turn dry in northern cattle areas, and the subsequent heavy cattle turnoff. On a positive note, slaughter capacity is nearing historic peaks, so any downturn might not be a dire as we’ve seen in previously dry periods.
Key Points
- MLA has released its cattle industry projections, indicating the national herd will remain steady in 2025.
- Strong female slaughter is being countered by increased productivity.
- Herd growth brings the risk of price downside when conditions dry in the north
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, ABS, Mecardo
