Odessa,,Ukraine,-,August,9,,2021:,Loading,Grain,Into,Holds

Another escalation in tension in the Ukraine – Russia conflict occurred with the Biden administration approving the use of US long-range weapons. The rapidly changing situation in the Black Sea continues to create uncertainty in global economic trade, especially for agricultural commodities. As a result, we are starting to see some war risk premium built into prices.

Yet for all this, I see global prices remaining on the low side.  The past week had been pretty brutal with a slide in futures and a strengthening USD, weakening FOB values across the globe. 

 

Due to our proximity to markets, even at current values, Aussie ASW is pricing into SE Asia, but only just. Brazilian wheat and US SWW are also attracting demand into feed markets in Korea and Vietnam. We can also expect tough competition from Argentina in these markets as they are expected to be aggressive sellers to bring in some much-needed cash into their economy.

 

Geopolitics continues to weave its web in commodity trading. China is forging closer ties with Brazil with regards to agricultural goods. Since the previous trade disputes in 2017, Brazil has surpassed the US as the preferred trading partner for soybeans. As an example, China purchased 8mmt of soybeans in October, 1.36mmt from Argentina, 514kmt from the US and the balance from Brazil. At the recent G20 meeting, China quietly signed an agreement between the two countries designed to strengthen ties (read more here). The deal includes a range of agricultural products, tech sharing and opening the road for extra foreign investment. This way China is already looking to sidestep any potential US export tariffs aimed at them.

 

Russia is looking at implementing an export quota from Feb through to June. It is unsure what the actual cap will be, but it is thought that the Kremlin is looking to try and keep exports through this period to around 10mmt, compared to the 29mmt exported last year. 

Next week

The market is watching the situation in the Black Sea very carefully. The limited upside in CBOT to date could be tested should supply routes be threatened.

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Click on graph to expand

Click on graph to expand

Data sources: Reuters, SovEcon, USDA, Next Level Grain Marketing, Government Brazil, Bloomberg, Mecardo

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