Since US President Trump started handing out trade tariffs to all and sundry, much of the focus for the Australian red meat industry has been on the impact the additional 10 percent would have on demand, as well as the America China tit for tat, and what that would mean for Australian trade. However, even with the announcement of US beef being allowed back into the Australian market in recent weeks, it is Trump's current biff with Brazil that could have the biggest influence on global beef trade for the remainder of the year.
Brazil produced a record volume of beef in 2024, and is the world’s largest exporter, sending 2.5 million tonnes overseas last year. In 2024, the US was Brazil’s second largest beef market, importing a record amount, increasing the volume by nearly 50 percent from the previous year and taking more than 30 percent of all Brazilian exported beef. This year, Brazil filled its tariff free beef quota into the US in just 17 days and has currently sent 103 percent more beef to the US than at the same time in 2024.
For the year to date, the US has imported 17.7 percent more beef altogether than the same time in 2024, with Australia being by far the biggest supplier. While Brazil overtook the number one spot for a few months at the start of the year, and has the biggest year on year increase, Australia has now sent 27 percent more beef to the US for the year than Brazil and increased their export volume by 30 percent year on year.
The reason being, of course, is tariffs. The introduction of 10 percent in April added only that amount to Australian beef that was previously entering the US tariff free, while out of quota Brazilian beef was already tariffed at 26 percent, taking it to 36 percent. As things stand currently, that additional 10 percent tariff will rise to 50 percent as of the 1st of August, taking it to 76 percent.
The Brazilian Association of Meatpackers (Abrafrigo) has said the cattle industry in Brazil faces losses of around US 1.3 billion dollars if the tariff is implemented, and some processors have already suspended shipments to the US. The Steiner Consulting Group’s latest US imported beef report says there will be no demand for Brazilian beef at that price point.
China remains Brazil’s biggest market, having sent 59 percent of all its beef exports there in 2024 and making up 47 percent of all Chinese imported beef. This was a record volume of 1.3 million tonnes, surpassing the previous top volume sent in 2022 by nearly 7 percent. Brazil’s Secretariat of Foreign Trade data showed year to June beef exports to China up 12 percent year on year, significant but still less tonnes than the increase to the US.
What does it mean?
US domestic product is trading at significant premiums to imported beef, meaning the market is turning towards other countries – primarily Australia – to fill the void created by the tariffs on Brazilian beef. Steiner is reporting that results from the recent US Cattle Inventory Survey showed no real domestic supply growth until 2027 at the earliest. This all bodes well for continued strong demand for Australian beef from the US. On the flip side, it could also see Brazilian product start to compete more strongly in other international markets and gain even more ground in China.
Key Points
- Brazilian beef exports to the US have more than doubled year-on-year in 2025 so far.
- Trade is likely to halt almost completely if the US proposed 50% tariff on Brazilian beef is imposed on Friday.
- US importers to turn to Australian product to fill the void, as their domestic prices continue to increase.
Data sources: Mecardo; Meat and Livestock Australia; Trademap; Steiner Consulting Group
