The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) Crop Report is the nation’s official estimate of grain production for the coming harvest, and the September report was released last week.
The Crop Report for September was particularly bullish for wheat production in Western Australia but also showed significant improvements in yields for east coast crops. Figure 1 shows how the latest national production forecast measures up against the past, and against the June estimates.
The headline wheat production forecast came in at 33.765 million tonnes, just 1% shy of last year, and 10.5% higher than the June estimate. Figure 1 shows that much of the increase comes from WA, which received a 15.5% bump in production, while on the east coast, harvest is expected to deliver 7.7% more, at 21.065 mmt.
The increase in expected production means this year’s wheat crop is set to be the fourth highest on record, surpassing what was at the time a bumper crop in 2020–21.
With little change in planting areas between the June and September reports, the 10.5% boost in wheat production comes from improved yield forecasts. Regular readers will know we like to occasionally look at ‘Wheatcast’ forecasts from the CSIRO for a guide on how the crop is performing.
Figure 2 shows how the latest Crop Report compares to the June Crop Report and the median Wheatcast forecasts. We can see in Figure 2 that the September Crop Report forecasts are running well ahead of the Wheatcast median numbers.
For the east coast, the Crop Report forecasts are well within the range of possible yields shown by Wheatcast, as ABARES factors in the favourable three-month rainfall outlook recently released by the Bureau of Meteorology.
The WA forecasts are interesting, as the 2.73 t/ha Crop Report number is well above the 2 t/ha Wheatcast figure. In fact, the Wheatcast maximum possible yield is forecast at around 2.35 t/ha, which is still well below the Crop Report forecast
What does it mean?
In terms of prices, increasing local production equates to weakening local basis, or premium to international values. With a crop forecast very similar to last year we would expect similar basis levels, although these can be influenced by rainfall during harvest and international freight costs. Those looking for a price rise aren’t going to find it at a local level; we are still waiting on an international rally.
Key Points
- The September crop report is forecasting increases in wheat yields across most states.
- WA is forecast to produce a very strong wheat crop, lifting significantly since June.
- Increasing wheat production will depress wheat basis levels, which should be similar to the last harvest.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: ABARES,CSIRO, Mecardo
