Trying to decipher US lamb prices is hard for someone with experience in market analysis. After trawling through United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) website with a charting function, and after converting the numbers we can see why their demand for our exports continued to grow.
Looking at raw numbers, one would think that US lambs are stronger than ours, but not extreme. When we run the conversions, they start to look very expensive. The USDA report lamb prices in dollar per cwt. In the US cwt doesn’t mean carcase weight, it means hundred weight, so the price is per hundred-pound liveweight. Very confusing.
Last week average auction prices of lambs in the US was $368 cwt. So that’s $368 per hundred pounds of liveweight. This converts to $8.11 per kilogram liveweight. In Aussie dollar terms, at 72US¢ this comes to $11.26/kg lwt in our terms. At a dressing percentage of 45% the US equals $25/kg carcase weight, to compare with our Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI), which currently sits around 1160¢/kg carcase wt.
For a 24-kilogram carcase weight lamb the price in the US is around $600 in our terms. Years of flock decline, and now expensive beef price have come together to see huge prices for US lambs.
It’s little wonder that US demand for Australian lamb has been running at strong levels. In April exports to the US were down compared to March, but 17% stronger than the same month in 2025. Figure 1 shows that the US has increased its market share from 24.5% last year, to 26% for 2026 to date.
The market share has come from the Middle East, with trade disruptions and high prices shifting product. Competition remains strong from China.
The USDA publish weekly prices for lamb imported from Australia, which gives us an indication of what processors are receiving for lambs. There are a lot of cuts, but we have charted the two highest volume cuts sold into the US in figure 2.
US imported lamb chilled short loins are 20% stronger than this time last year, while frozen legs are 30% stronger. Prices are similar to late 2025 in US terms, but we need to remember that the Aussie dollar has increased this year, which will mean processor returns might be marginally weaker than late last year.
What does it mean?
The US is entering grilling season, which drives demand for meat. US lamb is expensive, and Australian lamb supplies are entering season tightening. If processors are able to extract more value for exported lamb, local prices can climb in the winter, but local supply will ultimately drive prices.
Key Points
- US lamb price has hit extreme highs thus far in 2026.
- US market share for Australian exports has been climbing.
- Further improvements in imported lamb price are needed to drive saleyards values.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: USDA, ABS, Mecardo
