Both supply and demand will remain strong in the cattle industry this year according to the latest projections released by Meat & Livestock Australia this week - which means relative stability for the market. Slaughter has been revised higher for 2025, which will likely see production and export volume records broken once again. This will send our herd numbers lower each year of the three-year forecast, as the stock turn-off rate is set to remain above the average.
While the numbers have changed slightly in places, the outlook for this year is fairly similar to the last – plenty of cattle to come through the system, and expected heightened global demand as the US looks to fill its lean beef gap. Looking at our own herd first, high-turn off from the south as the season remains unfriendly to many will be one of the catalyst for it lowering this year, albeit by less than 1.5%, to 30.1 million head. This figure, and the expected herd size for the following two years, are largely unchanged from the last projections released in September.
Cattle slaughter in 2024 ended up 8.3 million head, 18% stronger than the previous year, and that is forecast to rise to 8.5 million in 2025, which will be an increase of a further 3%. Production will in-turn go up. However, only an estimated 2% compared to last year, as average carcase weights are expected to fall by more than 2kg as higher herd numbers mean more lower-weight female turn-off. Despite increased numbers of cattle being grainfed having boosted production and exports to new highs without record slaughter, the impact of the destock or rebuild cycle of carcase weights is still evident in the outlook, with this year expected to average 307kg, and 2027 forecast to be at 318kg.
On the demand side, despite the US herd opening this year at its lowest level in nearly three quarters of a century, it looks as though they have yet to move into a true rebuild phase, and when that happens – like most things in this game – will be reliant on the weather. However, what is likely to continue is their demand for lean beef, which saw US imports of Australian product rise by 68% last year. Competition wise, Brazil exported more beef in 2024 than any one country has ever done, but improved seasonal conditions is expected to pull back their production this year.
Which brings us to the price forecasts. MLA’s aggregate analyst estimate has the National Young Cattle, Feeder Steer and Heavy Steer Indicators with 1% of where they are now come the end of June. Which given the increase in supply bodes well for producers, as all three indicators are currently sitting.
What does it mean?
Steady as she goes is the theme for the coming year, which should give producers some confidence to bank on current budgets – as long as we can avoid any further drought conditions and too many of Trump’s tariffs.
Key Points
- Total cattle slaughter in 2024 and forecast slaughter for 2025 and 2026 have increased in the latest industry projections.
- Production and exports are expected to reach record levels again this year, and the herd size to decrease very marginally.
- Average carcase weights will dip this year due to female turn-off but rise back to about 3% above current levels by 2027.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: Mecardo; Meat and Livestock Australia, ABS
