Slaughter numbers continued to move in a manner close to the past trends set in 2020, and on average over the last 5 years. Last week, the number of cattle slaughtered rose 6% week on week, to 100,654 head. This still remains 8% below 2020 levels for this time of year, and the trajectory is slowing down, but history suggests that there is scope for further lifts in the next few weeks.
Yarding’s climbed 18% week on week last week to reach 46,116 head. We are now 4% above last year’s level for this time of year, and 2% below the 5-year average. Could they go higher? EYCI eligible cattle yardings numbers published each day give us a sneak peek in real time about the supply situation for the current week. They booked a big rise again this week, so it’s likely that when the numbers come out, they will reveal that supply was still in ascent mode this week.
The EYCI powered higher as it rose another 10¢(<1%) to climb to yet another all-time high record of 1,076¢/kg on Tuesday, before slipping back to 1,073¢/kg by the end of the week . Eligible young cattle yardings rose 25% to 16,796 head. Firm prices coupled with higher supply suggest that strong demand is still burning for cattle.
All the key markets posted mixed results this time, with average Roma prices pushing up 3.8% to 1095¢/kg, and but Wagga Wagga backtracked slightly, dipping 1% to 1,099¢/kg, on slightly higher yardings. Dubbo also reported a 3% fall to 1,048¢/kg, possibly a victim of cooling demand, as supply fell on last week.
The suite of National indicator posted varying results, this week, with restockers and feeder steers gently climbing, but all other categories indicated some pushback on prices for finished cattle.
90CL frozen cow prices tracked up 5¢(<1%) last week to close at 818¢/kg swt, with the appreciation in the AUD offset by a lift in the US price of 3¢ to 276¢/lb. Steiner depicts a rosy outlook for lean beef prices in Q1-22 as imported product availability is expected to remain very tight, while the domestic US cow herd continues to shrink.
The Aussie dollar ascended further, rising 1.1% against the US greenback this week to 0.754US. The driver for the AUD’s appreciation of late has been the speculation on two expected interest rate rises from the RBA in Q4 2022. Recent commentary from the RBA on concerns about rising inflation are indicative that they may soften their official stance to keep rates low till 2024.
Cattle onward and upward
Slaughter numbers continued to move in a manner close to the past trends set in 2020, and on average over the last 5 years. Last week, the number of cattle slaughtered rose 6% week on week, to 100,654 head. This still remains 8% below 2020 levels for this time of year, and the trajectory is slowing down, but history suggests that there is scope for further lifts in the next few weeks.
Yarding’s climbed 18% week on week last week to reach 46,116 head. We are now 4% above last year’s level for this time of year, and 2% below the 5-year average. Could they go higher? EYCI eligible cattle yardings numbers published each day give us a sneak peek in real time about the supply situation for the current week. They booked a big rise again this week, so it’s likely that when the numbers come out, they will reveal that supply was still in ascent mode this week.
The EYCI powered higher as it rose another 10¢(<1%) to climb to yet another all-time high record of 1,076¢/kg on Tuesday, before slipping back to 1,073¢/kg by the end of the week . Eligible young cattle yardings rose 25% to 16,796 head. Firm prices coupled with higher supply suggest that strong demand is still burning for cattle.
All the key markets posted mixed results this time, with average Roma prices pushing up 3.8% to 1095¢/kg, and but Wagga Wagga backtracked slightly, dipping 1% to 1,099¢/kg, on slightly higher yardings. Dubbo also reported a 3% fall to 1,048¢/kg, possibly a victim of cooling demand, as supply fell on last week.
The suite of National indicator posted varying results, this week, with restockers and feeder steers gently climbing, but all other categories indicated some pushback on prices for finished cattle.
90CL frozen cow prices tracked up 5¢(<1%) last week to close at 818¢/kg swt, with the appreciation in the AUD offset by a lift in the US price of 3¢ to 276¢/lb. Steiner depicts a rosy outlook for lean beef prices in Q1-22 as imported product availability is expected to remain very tight, while the domestic US cow herd continues to shrink.
The Aussie dollar ascended further, rising 1.1% against the US greenback this week to 0.754US. The driver for the AUD’s appreciation of late has been the speculation on two expected interest rate rises from the RBA in Q4 2022. Recent commentary from the RBA on concerns about rising inflation are indicative that they may soften their official stance to keep rates low till 2024.
The week ahead….
Supply continues to rise, and yet price indicators remain firm for the moment, especially in the case of tradable cattle. This paints a picture of strong underlying demand effortlessly soaking up the additional offerings coming through, and a mountain of confidence in the industry. As we march though to summer, consolidation of the monsoon season in Northern Australia has potential to inject further steam into an already hot market.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, Mecardo, BOM
Categories
Have any questions or comments?
Yardings back down to normal for now
October has been a busy month at the nation’s saleyards as throughput smashes 5-year average levels. This week has seen yardings relax significantly from these
Plenty of beef for the US
While beef export volumes have eased from the record highs of July, they continue to run well ahead of the average. The US market share
No steering clear of price falls
There was an inward shift in both supply and demand this week for the cattle market, resulting in lower prices across the board. Multiple saleyards
Lotfeeding capacity and utilisation on the rise
The number of cattle being finished on grain in Australia continues to rise according to the June quarter lotfeeding survey from MLA and ALFA. Feeder
Want market insights delivered straight to your inbox?
Sign up to the mailing list to get regular updates to new analysis and market outlooks
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.