Cattle prices on the rise as market waits for spring supply

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The cattle market carried on its gradual upward momentum this week, as yardings fell below the three-year average for only the second five-day week this year. All indicators ended the week higher, with restocker and feeder heifers performing the best as buyers look outside their usual specifications to secure the stock they need.

Cattle yardings fell by about 6000 head this week, with latest slaughter figures (last week’s) also on the decline, down just shy of 2000 head from the previous report. Slaughter still remains well above year-ago levels, 8.5% above to be exact, and female slaughter currently sits within 1% of male throughput.

Given this, it comes as no surprise National Livestock Reporting Service saw strong demand for processor cows this week – as long as they were at the right weight, and that the national indicator rose by 14¢/kg to 328¢/kg. Roma store sale, Queensland, had the biggest number of eligible cows (18% of the indicator) and averaged higher at 331¢/kg, while Dalby, Qld, had 15% of throughput and averaged 337¢/kg.

Restocker and feeder heifers both climbed more than 17¢/kg from the previous week, to land at 366¢/kg and 377¢/kg respectively. The top five yardings for restocker heifers were north of Tamworth (inclusive), giving a good indication that the supply has dried up in the south until the spring growth. When it comes to feeder heifers, NSW yards were achieving a significant premium over Queensland, averaging 406¢/kg compared to 335¢/kg.

Argus Meat & Livestock are reporting feeder cattle supply as limited across the board, despite some feeders tapping into backgrounders and company numbers and taking into account the timing of the Christmas processor shutdown. Rising processor contracts for finished cattle and softening feed wheat prices are likely boosting confidence in this sector.

The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator climbed 24¢/kg for the week, up nearly 60¢/kg in the past four weeks, and sitting at 722¢/kg carcase weight, or $1420/head. The Online Young Cattle Indicator rose about 10¢/kg for the week to 421¢/kg live weight, with more than a quarter of the eligible stock coming from the desert channels. 

Next week

All factors staying equal, the market should continue on its current trajectory in the coming weeks, especially if forecast widespread rainfall eventuates over the weekend and constricts supply even further. Renewed soil moisture in many areas and attractive forward contracts despite slaughter trending 9% above 2024 for the year-to-date are setting the market up with plenty of positivity in the spring, with rainfall and supply left to come out of the system to dictate how high it will push.

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Data sources: Argus, Mecardo; Meat and Livestock Australia

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