Wheat markets across the globe exploded back into life this week as two old flash points reignite. Chicago (CBOT) has rallied 31c/bu - or approximately AU$16/t - as the Kerch Strait issue remains unresolved and now the conflict has spread further in the Middle East as the Red Sea is potentially under threat of blockade.
In the Black Sea, both sides are employing a relatively new tactic of targeting each other’s economy driving sectors. Ukraine is targeting Russia’s oil storage and processing capabilities as well as the shipping transiting through the narrow Kerch Strait. The Southern Russian port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea is also no longer out of range, with Ukrainian drones making their mark per Reuters. Likewise, Russia is targeting Ukraine’s grain export terminal and this week, they hit a ship loaded with corn, a precedent that has ramifications for shipping in the entire Black Sea.
This point is reminiscent of the early days of the war when Russia mined sea routes in an attempt to stop Ukrainian exports. If this becomes a common tactic, insurance companies won’t insure, sailors won’t sail and ship owners won’t send vessels to the area. Shipper Maersk is the first to stop sending vessels to Ukrainian waters for loading.
So, it comes down to this point. Ukraine traditionally exports 8 to 10mmt out of the deep seaports at Odessa and Privdennyi. Russia transports 25% of its wheat program through the Kerch Strait. With these two pinch points compromised, we are potentially looking at a significant amount of Black Sea supply being isolated. SovEcon reports that potentially 1-3mmt of wheat exports per month are in jeopardy.
As we have seen in recent times, markets have an uncanny way of finding alternative routes to get their product to market. Maybe world leaders will be able to negotiate safe passage for food-bearing vessels or maybe a ceasefire can be negotiated after this recent escalation? Either way, I suspect the grain will find its way to the market and this will ultimately cap how high this market can rally.
The second market driver is the Middle East. New flash points are popping up all over the place, with the Iran backed Houthi’s threatening to blockade access through the Red Sea per BBC. It’s a passage that Saudi Arabia uses to export 8% of the world’s oil.
Canola has been the main beneficiary with ICE futures having jumped CA$53/t for the week on the strength of crude and the wider oilseed complex. The fact that more and more of the world’s oilseeds are being used as fuel stock for biodiesel supports on-going strength. The only risk that I can see is the damage that the proposed 50% import tariff on Canadian goods that the US is considering. This could potentially turn off the tap of Canadian canola seed and oil into the US biofuel industry that is currently paying so well. Alberta Canada are currently reporting however that under the current scope proposed on the 20TH of July by the White House, canola seed oil and meal is exempt from this fresh set of tariffs.
Next week
Looking for the bright side, this rally is the tonic that Aussie farmers have been looking for to capitalise on a promising start to the cropping year. At the moment, the trade will be trying to determine the likelihood of a quick resolution, versus the potential for a drawn-out affair. As a result, it is unlikely the trade will follow the rally in full until they get some more clarity.
The wheat complex has experienced a rather choppy few days, with systematic profit-taking shifting some of the heat out of the supply-squeeze-driven buoyancy we are
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Conflict escalations driving the market
In the Black Sea, both sides are employing a relatively new tactic of targeting each other’s economy driving sectors. Ukraine is targeting Russia’s oil storage and processing capabilities as well as the shipping transiting through the narrow Kerch Strait. The Southern Russian port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea is also no longer out of range, with Ukrainian drones making their mark per Reuters. Likewise, Russia is targeting Ukraine’s grain export terminal and this week, they hit a ship loaded with corn, a precedent that has ramifications for shipping in the entire Black Sea.
This point is reminiscent of the early days of the war when Russia mined sea routes in an attempt to stop Ukrainian exports. If this becomes a common tactic, insurance companies won’t insure, sailors won’t sail and ship owners won’t send vessels to the area. Shipper Maersk is the first to stop sending vessels to Ukrainian waters for loading.
So, it comes down to this point. Ukraine traditionally exports 8 to 10mmt out of the deep seaports at Odessa and Privdennyi. Russia transports 25% of its wheat program through the Kerch Strait. With these two pinch points compromised, we are potentially looking at a significant amount of Black Sea supply being isolated. SovEcon reports that potentially 1-3mmt of wheat exports per month are in jeopardy.
As we have seen in recent times, markets have an uncanny way of finding alternative routes to get their product to market. Maybe world leaders will be able to negotiate safe passage for food-bearing vessels or maybe a ceasefire can be negotiated after this recent escalation? Either way, I suspect the grain will find its way to the market and this will ultimately cap how high this market can rally.
The second market driver is the Middle East. New flash points are popping up all over the place, with the Iran backed Houthi’s threatening to blockade access through the Red Sea per BBC. It’s a passage that Saudi Arabia uses to export 8% of the world’s oil.
Canola has been the main beneficiary with ICE futures having jumped CA$53/t for the week on the strength of crude and the wider oilseed complex. The fact that more and more of the world’s oilseeds are being used as fuel stock for biodiesel supports on-going strength. The only risk that I can see is the damage that the proposed 50% import tariff on Canadian goods that the US is considering. This could potentially turn off the tap of Canadian canola seed and oil into the US biofuel industry that is currently paying so well. Alberta Canada are currently reporting however that under the current scope proposed on the 20TH of July by the White House, canola seed oil and meal is exempt from this fresh set of tariffs.
Next week
Looking for the bright side, this rally is the tonic that Aussie farmers have been looking for to capitalise on a promising start to the cropping year. At the moment, the trade will be trying to determine the likelihood of a quick resolution, versus the potential for a drawn-out affair. As a result, it is unlikely the trade will follow the rally in full until they get some more clarity.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: Next Level Grain Marketing, Reuters, SovEcon, Zaner Ag, Alberta Canola, Bloomberg, BBC, Mecardo
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Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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