The end of March seems a lifetime ago given what has gone down in cattle markets since. But it is the end of March slaughter and beef production data which was dropped recently. Despite being out of date, and market drivers having left it behind, it’s still worth analysing.
There are some good headline numbers in the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Livestock Products data drop. The seasonally adjusted cattle slaughter number was at its highest level since seasonal adjustment started, in 1979.
The actual number of cattle slaughtered was lower than the June and September quarters of 2025, but the March quarter is traditionally the lowest. The last time that first quarter slaughter was higher was in 1978, during a mass cattle liquidation.
In 1978 Queensland medium steers were making 50¢/kg cwt. That is $135 for a 500kg lwt steer. In today’s money it is more like $885/head. In March 500kg steers were making $2,250/head or thereabouts. Such is the improvement in demand.
Female cattle slaughter gives us an indication of producer intentions and herd direction. The March quarter saw 1.22 million head of female cattle slaughtered. This is more than double March 2022, a 7% increase on last year and the highest March level since 1978. The female slaughter rate (FSR), which is the proportion of females of total slaughter, remained relatively steady on 53% (figure 2).
The FSR has been above 50% since June 2024, yet the herd seems to be maintaining it’s strong numbers. Male cattle slaughter gives us a lagged indication of the size of the breeding herd. Figure 3 shows male cattle slaughter increased 5% on March 2025, which tells us the breeding herd was still growing in 2024. The FSR moved above 50% in 2024, usually an indication or a shrinking breeding herd.
The male slaughter rate in the coming quarters should tell us whether the high FSR has impacted the breeding herd, and therefore the number of male cattle available for slaughter. Cattle on feed numbers suggest there have been plenty of cattle available despite strong female slaughter.
What does it mean?
We know female slaughter was running hot in April and early May, but we’ll have to wait until August for the data, and an indication of what impact it might have had on the herd. We should be nearing peak male cattle supply. If it is in decline, as would be expected from historical data, we could see prices make another run higher this winter.
Key Points
- March quarter cattle slaughter hit a 48 year high in 2026.
- Female cattle slaughter remains very strong.
- We could be seeing the peak of male cattle supply in 2026.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, ABS, Mecardo
