Crossbred wool prices have endured a torrid time since 2020. Unlike merino, crossbred prices did not bounce back strongly in 2021 following the initial impact of the pandemic, instead remaining at depressed levels. In happier news this season prices have rebounded, which is what this article looks at.
After enjoying a good run in terms of prices between 2011 and 2019, crossbred prices fell heavily in 2020 at the onset of the pandemic and then, depending on the micron category, either continued to drift lower or traded at extremely low levels. Figure 1 shows deflated prices for three crossbred fleece series (an all in combing fleece average for Australian auctions) from 2000 to last week in Australian dollar terms.
The twin peaks of 2011 and 2018-2019 are clear for the 26 and 28 micron categories, while the 34 micron category fell away after 2015. The average United Kingdom (UK) wool clip price tracks the Australian 35 micron price quite closely, so the 34 micron price in Figure 1 shows how it has been a long time of depressed wool prices in the UK. The graph puts the depressed prices of recent years in context. With the price rises this year, these series have returned to the around the levels they traded in between 2004 and 2015.
Another way of looking at wool prices to compared them to the larger apparel fibres. Figure 2 shows the price ratio for the 28 micron price series shown in Figure 1 to a combined synthetic fibre series (oil based and cellulosic) from 2000 onwards. The price ratio varies greatly, with the ratio reaching a low of two in the period 2022 to early 2025. In 2026 the ratio has returned to be around four, which is close to the median level for the series shown in this graph. As is usual the price ratio is mainly driven by the wool price. Figure 2 suggests a price ratio of six to seven is too high for the supply chain to bear, while a price ratio of two is too low for farmers to bear. This is simply musing, but a ratio of four to five, in the middle, might be a good compromise.
In Figure 3 the current price rank for crossbred combing fleece from 25 to 36 micron at Australian auction sales (using 15 year deflated prices) is shown. The broader crossbred prices have a higher rank, due to the longer time spent at lower price levels. The core Australian crossbred fleece micron categories (27-29 micron) are tracking in the 40th to 50th percentiles. Not high and not low.
Table 1 shows the percentiles, average price, current price and rank for 26 to 34 micron fleece price series, again using 15 years of deflated data. The price ranges across the percentiles are large, for 28 micron about 600 cents either side of the median.
What does it mean?
In 2018-2019 finer crossbred prices were extremely expensive, then they switched, becoming depressed in 2021-2025, missing completely the rebound that merino prices had in 2021-2023. Now crossbred prices have emerged from their depressed levels to be near median price levels in deflated Australia dollar terms for the past 15 years, and near median terms for price ratio to synthetics for a longer 26 year period, since 2000.
Key Points
- Crossbred wool prices have rebounded from the very depressed levels of 2021-2025
- At this stage they are near median levels for the past 15 years using deflated Australian prices
- In terms of price ratio to synthetic fibres, the 28 micron is close to its median level for the 2000-2026 period
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: AWEX, Emerging Textiles, IWTO, RBA, ICS , Mecardo
