The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) quarterly slaughter and beef production data dropped last week. The end of is a March a distant memory for many who have endured excessive dry or excessive wet conditions since, which have no doubt shifted supply patterns, but we’ll see if we can find a starting point.
The trend of increasing cattle slaughter rates continued in the first quarter of 2025. The headline cattle slaughter number of 2.172 million head was up 20% on March 2024, and the highest level since 2015. September last year had higher slaughter figures, but for the first quarter, cattle supply was particularly strong.
Figure 1 shows the twelve-month (or four quarters in this case) moving average edging above the levels of the 2019 drought, which is a strong indicator of herd growth. We need to remember that at the end of March, cattle producers in the south were still hopeful of a timely autumn break. The March quarter figures were yet to be heavily influenced by drought-induced turn off.
Long-time readers will know we like to look at male cattle slaughter as an indication of the size of the herd, and female slaughter for the direction. Male cattle slaughter in March was 11% higher than in 2024, and the highest level since 2015. Male slaughter was 10% lower than 2015, however, and the growth in the feedlot sector is now seeing male cattle processed earlier.
The latest official herd figure we have from the ABS is still from June 2023. We aren’t going to see a June 2024 number until the 12th of June. The latest MLA estimate for 2024 was just over 30 million head, compared to a peak of 31.8 million head in 2013.
Female cattle slaughter was still relatively low in the March quarter of 2024. Female slaughter jumped higher in June and has remained strong since. Figure 2 shows that the March female cattle slaughter was 31% higher than last year, and at the highest March level since 1979.
Big numbers of females were processed in Victoria and NSW, which drove the 36-year high. The southern herd is no doubt in decline, but Queensland remains the powerhouse of beef production.
What does it mean?
The National herd looks to be peaking, with numbers on the decline in the south, and steady or higher in the north. As such, the cattle supply should be somewhere near the peak over the coming year, with seasons determining how things pan out from there.
With the herd shifting north, the major concern for markets now becomes a dry summer in 2025-26. We only have to look at how things panned out in 2019-20 to get an idea of the downside risk.
Key Points
- Quarterly cattle slaughter numbers show growth in male and female supply.
- Male cattle slaughter suggests the herd was still growing in 2023.
- Female cattle slaughter reached its highest March level since 1979.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: ABS, MLA, Mecardo
