Contracting supply and rain were key ingredients in a much stronger lamb and sheep market this week. Seasonal conditions have conspired with robust processing demand which bodes very well for the outlook as we approach the new year.
Looking at the rainfall map for the past week explains where
the jump in restocker interest came from. Many of the areas in the east that
had turned off for summer received over 50mm. In Wagga, restocker lambs fetched
an impressive average price of 885¢. Restocker lamb results were also strong in
Horsham, Carcoar and Forbes, contributing to a rise of 27¢ in the National
Restocker Lamb Indicator to 726¢/kg this week. The Bendigo saleyard report
mentioned restocking demand was back from the Mallee/Wimmera, north-east Vic,
Shepparton and local Bendigo area.
The recent rally in Merino and Light lamb prices tailed off
to a degree this week, with minor changes to the National Indicators week on
week. With these segments sitting at significant discounts to finished lamb
values, and more seasonal optimism in some regions we may see some improvement
here in the weeks ahead.
It was finished lambs that commanded the attention of buyers
this week though. Pressure to secure heavy lambs was noted at Wagga sales,
where the export market “exhibited no boundaries”. It was a similar story in
Ballarat where some trade and export lambs reached over 1000¢/kg. The National
Heavy Lamb Indicator picked up 38¢ over the week to end at 909¢/kg cwt, just
surpassing the high of 902¢ in mid-July.
The WA market also experienced strength in pockets. While
store lamb demand was mixed between saleyards, most other categories gained in
value.
The mutton market was also dragged higher by an increase in
buyer demand on account of the rain and tighter supply. National sheep saleyard
throughput declined 19% week on week and the National Mutton Indicator lifted
1¢ to 384¢/kg cwt. In WA mutton prices gained 57¢ to 291¢/kg cwt; the highest
level since September.
Next week
Whether there is more steam in the tank for another push higher will depend on how supply shapes up next week. More rain is on the forecast for next week, centring in on east coastal areas and northeast NSW, but there is a chance of it being more widespread according to the BOM.
Standard livestock market analysis centres around supply, with shifts in demand usually gradual, and rarely to the downside. The odd ‘Black Swan’ event can see
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Defying seasonality
Looking at the rainfall map for the past week explains where the jump in restocker interest came from. Many of the areas in the east that had turned off for summer received over 50mm. In Wagga, restocker lambs fetched an impressive average price of 885¢. Restocker lamb results were also strong in Horsham, Carcoar and Forbes, contributing to a rise of 27¢ in the National Restocker Lamb Indicator to 726¢/kg this week. The Bendigo saleyard report mentioned restocking demand was back from the Mallee/Wimmera, north-east Vic, Shepparton and local Bendigo area.
The recent rally in Merino and Light lamb prices tailed off to a degree this week, with minor changes to the National Indicators week on week. With these segments sitting at significant discounts to finished lamb values, and more seasonal optimism in some regions we may see some improvement here in the weeks ahead.
It was finished lambs that commanded the attention of buyers this week though. Pressure to secure heavy lambs was noted at Wagga sales, where the export market “exhibited no boundaries”. It was a similar story in Ballarat where some trade and export lambs reached over 1000¢/kg. The National Heavy Lamb Indicator picked up 38¢ over the week to end at 909¢/kg cwt, just surpassing the high of 902¢ in mid-July.
The WA market also experienced strength in pockets. While store lamb demand was mixed between saleyards, most other categories gained in value.
The mutton market was also dragged higher by an increase in buyer demand on account of the rain and tighter supply. National sheep saleyard throughput declined 19% week on week and the National Mutton Indicator lifted 1¢ to 384¢/kg cwt. In WA mutton prices gained 57¢ to 291¢/kg cwt; the highest level since September.
Next week
Whether there is more steam in the tank for another push higher will depend on how supply shapes up next week. More rain is on the forecast for next week, centring in on east coastal areas and northeast NSW, but there is a chance of it being more widespread according to the BOM.
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Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: Nutrien Ag Solutions, MLA, BOM, Mecardo
Categories
Have any questions or comments?
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.