Demand swings back towards the sellers favour

Linears cattle market, Buenos Aires, Argentina

The latest Beef Producer Intentions Survey (BPIS), undertaken by Meat & Livestock Australia with results released this week, shows overall positivity in the industry, with 61% of producers surveyed looking forward to the next 12 months. And this was done before the rain which started in late May and has continued this week. The market has responded accordingly, with yardings dropping and prices rising, as the supply and demand equation continues to trend in the producers’ favour, despite sustained strong slaughter.

The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator jumped significantly this week, up nearly 5% to 969¢/kg and is now sitting at its highest level since 2022, which not coincidentally was the last time autumn rain was as substantial and widespread as this year. The Roma store sale in Queensland had nearly a quarter of the throughput but still averaged well above the indicator at 993¢/kg, with the National Livestock Reporting Service quoting restocker competition from the local area as well as Western Queensland and Northern NSW. EYCI eligible cattle were above $10/kg in Wagga Wagga, NSW.

Cow prices also increased, climbing 26¢/kg for the week to be 40% higher year-on-year. Australia’s beef exports in May were the highest for the year so far, with volumes to the US up about 20% for the year-to-date compared to 2025. Beef to China is now up 30%, supporting predictions of the quota being filled sooner rather than later and Australian beef that would usually be headed there having to find a different market.

Last week’s cattle slaughter fell 2% from the previous week but was still 8% higher year-on-year, and at its third-highest weekly total so far this year. Female cattle made up close to 50% of the kill. Yardings this week fell 6%, putting them 13% lower than the same week last year and below MLA’s three-year rolling average. Those figures show that March and April were the two largest yarding months for the past three years, while May dropped back to below year-ago levels.

All other major national indicators rose 20-27¢/kg, with the exception of heavy steers which lost 5¢/kg. It was also the only indicator to increase in throughput, albeit only slightly at less than 200 head more going through the yards. Restocker steers experienced the largest rise and now sits at the biggest year-on-year premium, 142¢/kg ahead of where it was the same time last year.

Next week

There’s little likely to dampen the positive sentiment in the next week, especially if there is some good grass growing weather post rain. Of course, we’ve learnt of late that the global dynamic rarely stays consistent, and proposed new tariffs from Trump and the filling of our China beef quota could have an impact given historically high slaughter.

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Data sources: MLA, Mecardo

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