Temperatures are rising but for the most part, demand was slightly cooler this week. Preference and premiums for heavier stock are persisting, but it's clear that lighter stock at the yards is selling in the buyers' favour, which contributed to young cattle price declines outpacing the rest of the market this week.
At a national level, individual cattle price indicators
traded in a range of 7c decline (restocker heifers) to a 3c gain (Heavy Dairy
Cows) this week. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator lost 19c to 615c/kg cwt. An
uptick in supply (17% week on week) of young cattle contributed to the decline,
however, trawling through saleyard reports suggests the condition of cattle is
pushing bidders into two separate cohorts. Sharper pencils for the heavies and
wait and see for the lighter end of the spectrum.
Wagga continues to see lifting cattle numbers but a wide
disparity in condition. This saw
premiums for heavier stock prevail. It was business as usual in Roma, but Dalby
saw spirited competition for heavy bullocks. Yearling demand was strong in
Dubbo but condition-driven first and foremost and Queensland feeder buyers were
present in Gunnedah sensing opportunity in the slightly softer market.
Per NLRS reports, cattle saleyard throughput eclipsed 61k
head. Whilst not at the heights reached in the last few months, Victorian
cattle throughput did increase 37% week on week despite having Tuesday off.
Consistency has been key for the processing sector and last
week’s slaughter figures tracked sideways with 143,668 head processed. National
female cattle slaughter sat at the 48% mark however Victorian female slaughter
ratios eclipsed 73% as Southern producers continued to exit breeders.
Just like Melbourne Cup form guides and US election polling
data, predicting the weather months in advance is fraught with risk and likely
setting yourself up for failure. Instead of calling how the monsoon will pan
out, this week on Mecardo analyst Angus Brown looked at some scenarios for wet
and dry outcomes (read
more here). A wetter-than-average monsoon would likely see steady to
slightly stronger prices, with elevated stocking rates putting a cap on the
level of restocker demand. If the wet season fails, we will likely see strong
cattle supply as a result of the large herd making its way to the market.
Next week
6 weeks till Christmas but 10 weeks until President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. Exporters and importers involved in the US – Australia beef trade might make the most of a status quo, high supply and demand environment before potential trade tariffs cloudy the waters for logistics and price forecasting.
Australia’s live cattle export numbers lifted significantly in July but remain subdued for the year-to-date compared to the five-year-average. More competition for lower supply and
The cattle market felt the chill of mid-winter this week as prices fell across the board despite slightly lower throughput. Support remains seemingly strong in
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Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.
Demand takes a dip, heavier yearlings handle the heat
At a national level, individual cattle price indicators traded in a range of 7c decline (restocker heifers) to a 3c gain (Heavy Dairy Cows) this week. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator lost 19c to 615c/kg cwt. An uptick in supply (17% week on week) of young cattle contributed to the decline, however, trawling through saleyard reports suggests the condition of cattle is pushing bidders into two separate cohorts. Sharper pencils for the heavies and wait and see for the lighter end of the spectrum.
Wagga continues to see lifting cattle numbers but a wide disparity in condition. This saw premiums for heavier stock prevail. It was business as usual in Roma, but Dalby saw spirited competition for heavy bullocks. Yearling demand was strong in Dubbo but condition-driven first and foremost and Queensland feeder buyers were present in Gunnedah sensing opportunity in the slightly softer market.
Per NLRS reports, cattle saleyard throughput eclipsed 61k head. Whilst not at the heights reached in the last few months, Victorian cattle throughput did increase 37% week on week despite having Tuesday off.
Consistency has been key for the processing sector and last week’s slaughter figures tracked sideways with 143,668 head processed. National female cattle slaughter sat at the 48% mark however Victorian female slaughter ratios eclipsed 73% as Southern producers continued to exit breeders.
Just like Melbourne Cup form guides and US election polling data, predicting the weather months in advance is fraught with risk and likely setting yourself up for failure. Instead of calling how the monsoon will pan out, this week on Mecardo analyst Angus Brown looked at some scenarios for wet and dry outcomes (read more here). A wetter-than-average monsoon would likely see steady to slightly stronger prices, with elevated stocking rates putting a cap on the level of restocker demand. If the wet season fails, we will likely see strong cattle supply as a result of the large herd making its way to the market.
Next week
6 weeks till Christmas but 10 weeks until President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. Exporters and importers involved in the US – Australia beef trade might make the most of a status quo, high supply and demand environment before potential trade tariffs cloudy the waters for logistics and price forecasting.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, BOM, Mecardo
Categories
Have any questions or comments?
A shift in destination and a fall in price
With quotas filled in key export markets, and some shifting sentiment in another, cattle exports are in a state of flux. With uncertainty often comes
Feeder fountain coming from the North
More rainfall in the South and a drop in throughput overall wasn’t enough to rally cattle prices this week. The market is still experiencing symptoms
Live export trade slips as domestic market soaks up supply
Australia’s live cattle export numbers lifted significantly in July but remain subdued for the year-to-date compared to the five-year-average. More competition for lower supply and
The north-south divide is opening up again for young cattle
The cattle market felt the chill of mid-winter this week as prices fell across the board despite slightly lower throughput. Support remains seemingly strong in
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.