Temperatures are rising but for the most part, demand was slightly cooler this week. Preference and premiums for heavier stock are persisting, but it's clear that lighter stock at the yards is selling in the buyers' favour, which contributed to young cattle price declines outpacing the rest of the market this week.
At a national level, individual cattle price indicators
traded in a range of 7c decline (restocker heifers) to a 3c gain (Heavy Dairy
Cows) this week. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator lost 19c to 615c/kg cwt. An
uptick in supply (17% week on week) of young cattle contributed to the decline,
however, trawling through saleyard reports suggests the condition of cattle is
pushing bidders into two separate cohorts. Sharper pencils for the heavies and
wait and see for the lighter end of the spectrum.
Wagga continues to see lifting cattle numbers but a wide
disparity in condition. This saw
premiums for heavier stock prevail. It was business as usual in Roma, but Dalby
saw spirited competition for heavy bullocks. Yearling demand was strong in
Dubbo but condition-driven first and foremost and Queensland feeder buyers were
present in Gunnedah sensing opportunity in the slightly softer market.
Per NLRS reports, cattle saleyard throughput eclipsed 61k
head. Whilst not at the heights reached in the last few months, Victorian
cattle throughput did increase 37% week on week despite having Tuesday off.
Consistency has been key for the processing sector and last
week’s slaughter figures tracked sideways with 143,668 head processed. National
female cattle slaughter sat at the 48% mark however Victorian female slaughter
ratios eclipsed 73% as Southern producers continued to exit breeders.
Just like Melbourne Cup form guides and US election polling
data, predicting the weather months in advance is fraught with risk and likely
setting yourself up for failure. Instead of calling how the monsoon will pan
out, this week on Mecardo analyst Angus Brown looked at some scenarios for wet
and dry outcomes (read
more here). A wetter-than-average monsoon would likely see steady to
slightly stronger prices, with elevated stocking rates putting a cap on the
level of restocker demand. If the wet season fails, we will likely see strong
cattle supply as a result of the large herd making its way to the market.
Next week
6 weeks till Christmas but 10 weeks until President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. Exporters and importers involved in the US – Australia beef trade might make the most of a status quo, high supply and demand environment before potential trade tariffs cloudy the waters for logistics and price forecasting.
As seen this week when supply tightens at the yards, young cattle prices spike upward in the current climate. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator improved
The cattle lotfeeding sector has been experiencing huge growth over the last few years. The September quarter saw growth in cattle on feed (COF) numbers
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Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
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Demand takes a dip, heavier yearlings handle the heat
At a national level, individual cattle price indicators traded in a range of 7c decline (restocker heifers) to a 3c gain (Heavy Dairy Cows) this week. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator lost 19c to 615c/kg cwt. An uptick in supply (17% week on week) of young cattle contributed to the decline, however, trawling through saleyard reports suggests the condition of cattle is pushing bidders into two separate cohorts. Sharper pencils for the heavies and wait and see for the lighter end of the spectrum.
Wagga continues to see lifting cattle numbers but a wide disparity in condition. This saw premiums for heavier stock prevail. It was business as usual in Roma, but Dalby saw spirited competition for heavy bullocks. Yearling demand was strong in Dubbo but condition-driven first and foremost and Queensland feeder buyers were present in Gunnedah sensing opportunity in the slightly softer market.
Per NLRS reports, cattle saleyard throughput eclipsed 61k head. Whilst not at the heights reached in the last few months, Victorian cattle throughput did increase 37% week on week despite having Tuesday off.
Consistency has been key for the processing sector and last week’s slaughter figures tracked sideways with 143,668 head processed. National female cattle slaughter sat at the 48% mark however Victorian female slaughter ratios eclipsed 73% as Southern producers continued to exit breeders.
Just like Melbourne Cup form guides and US election polling data, predicting the weather months in advance is fraught with risk and likely setting yourself up for failure. Instead of calling how the monsoon will pan out, this week on Mecardo analyst Angus Brown looked at some scenarios for wet and dry outcomes (read more here). A wetter-than-average monsoon would likely see steady to slightly stronger prices, with elevated stocking rates putting a cap on the level of restocker demand. If the wet season fails, we will likely see strong cattle supply as a result of the large herd making its way to the market.
Next week
6 weeks till Christmas but 10 weeks until President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. Exporters and importers involved in the US – Australia beef trade might make the most of a status quo, high supply and demand environment before potential trade tariffs cloudy the waters for logistics and price forecasting.
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Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, BOM, Mecardo
Categories
Have any questions or comments?
Northern restocker conquest pushes heifers higher
As seen this week when supply tightens at the yards, young cattle prices spike upward in the current climate. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator improved
Lotfeeders making hay
The cattle lotfeeding sector has been experiencing huge growth over the last few years. The September quarter saw growth in cattle on feed (COF) numbers
Market moves focus as we wait for the weather
With substantial rainfall on the radar and the holiday season right around the corner, the focus of the cattle market has swung away from finished
Big turnoff not a turnoff for beef
The latest data release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on livestock products has shown that our beef cattle herd is well and truly into
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.