After a stellar run over the last few weeks, the winter price rally appears to have found its limit. Lamb and mutton prices were down across the east this week, with steep falls occurring despite tighter supply.
Mid-July typically marks the seasonal low point for sheep
and lamb slaughter, and we saw the numbers heading that way. Last week combined
sheep and slaughter fell by almost 40 thousand head compared to the week prior.
It was still 8% stronger than the same week last year mind you.
Mixed wintery quality lambs are presenting, which contributed
to the softer market. More notably, a number of key saleyards made mention that
not all usual export buyers were active, and the market was described as
“erratic”.
Trade lambs lost 86¢ on the week in NSW and 78¢ in Vic. In
WA, the market was playing catchup to the east, so trade lamb prices managed to
gain 123¢ to close at 703¢/kg cwt. Comparably the National Trade Lamb Indicator
ended this week at 788¢/kg cwt, up 57% YoY.
Heavy lamb prices lost 85¢ on the week to 797¢/kg cwt, and
It was a similar story for Merino lambs with the National Indicator down 83¢
week on week. Restocker lambs haven’t experienced the rally to the same extent
as the slaughter market, with buyers remaining cautious due to mixed seasonal
conditions and high costs. The National Restocker Lamb Indicator ended this
week at 593¢/kg, after falling 47¢.
Mutton followed the lamb market’s lead lower. The National
Mutton Indicator dropped 81¢ this week to finish at 400¢/kg cwt.
The week ahead….
While this week’s correction was sizeable, producers should have confidence that demand is supporting the market at these winter price levels. The supply part of the equation is unlikely to shift much higher in the weeks ahead which will hopefully arrest this week’s trend.
Australia’s total sheepmeat exports dropped 3% year-on-year for the month of May but remains 1% above 2024 for the year-to-date. Trump and all his tariff
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Did lambs find the ceiling?
Mid-July typically marks the seasonal low point for sheep and lamb slaughter, and we saw the numbers heading that way. Last week combined sheep and slaughter fell by almost 40 thousand head compared to the week prior. It was still 8% stronger than the same week last year mind you.
Mixed wintery quality lambs are presenting, which contributed to the softer market. More notably, a number of key saleyards made mention that not all usual export buyers were active, and the market was described as “erratic”.
Trade lambs lost 86¢ on the week in NSW and 78¢ in Vic. In WA, the market was playing catchup to the east, so trade lamb prices managed to gain 123¢ to close at 703¢/kg cwt. Comparably the National Trade Lamb Indicator ended this week at 788¢/kg cwt, up 57% YoY.
Heavy lamb prices lost 85¢ on the week to 797¢/kg cwt, and It was a similar story for Merino lambs with the National Indicator down 83¢ week on week. Restocker lambs haven’t experienced the rally to the same extent as the slaughter market, with buyers remaining cautious due to mixed seasonal conditions and high costs. The National Restocker Lamb Indicator ended this week at 593¢/kg, after falling 47¢.
Mutton followed the lamb market’s lead lower. The National Mutton Indicator dropped 81¢ this week to finish at 400¢/kg cwt.
The week ahead….
While this week’s correction was sizeable, producers should have confidence that demand is supporting the market at these winter price levels. The supply part of the equation is unlikely to shift much higher in the weeks ahead which will hopefully arrest this week’s trend.
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Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.