Commodity markets are being pulled in multiple directions all at once. A tenuous cease fire announced this week brought a broad sell off, with crude oil plunging 14% at one point with wheat following suit. Confusion remains around what exactly a cease fire entails as conflict continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to most shipping.
The USDA’s May WASDE report, released overnight, added further pressure to wheat. Global ending stocks were lifted by 6mmt, catching the market off guard. The bulk of the increase came from a 5mmt reduction in India’s wheat consumption, with smaller adjustments to EU and Russian stocks making up the balance. In effect, global wheat supplies now sit at their most comfortable levels in eight years—somewhat at odds with the more bullish narrative that had been building.
On top of this, as per Reuters, Ukraine sunk a Russian flagged merchant vessel carrying wheat near the Black Sea. It barely rated a mention in all the market wires I read, other than freight premiums and insurance are likely to go up. One positive is that the relatively safe passage from Australia to SE Asia suddenly looks more attractive for wheat importers.
In the US, wheat markets were also weighed down by much-needed rainfall across Hard Red Winter (HRW) regions. That said, precipitation was largely concentrated in the eastern portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, leaving western areas still under significant stress. Crop condition ratings continue to deteriorate, with just 35% rated good-to-excellent, down from 48% last year, and around two-thirds of the region still in drought. Some analysts argue the damage is already done, drawing comparisons to the historically poor 2022 crop.
More rain is forecast in the coming week, with systems expected to push further into the parched western zones. While some yield potential has likely been lost, wheat has a well-earned reputation for recovery under favourable spring conditions. If forecasts verify, crop ratings could stabilise—and potentially improve—over the next fortnight.
Next week
A fragile ceasefire in Iran, Black Sea tensions simmering, and a genuine production issue emerging in the US, wheat markets don’t know which way to look. The HRW issue is grabbing headlines, but a deeper dive will indicate that much of Europe and Russia are lifting production expectations.
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Dire Straits
The USDA’s May WASDE report, released overnight, added further pressure to wheat. Global ending stocks were lifted by 6mmt, catching the market off guard. The bulk of the increase came from a 5mmt reduction in India’s wheat consumption, with smaller adjustments to EU and Russian stocks making up the balance. In effect, global wheat supplies now sit at their most comfortable levels in eight years—somewhat at odds with the more bullish narrative that had been building.
On top of this, as per Reuters, Ukraine sunk a Russian flagged merchant vessel carrying wheat near the Black Sea. It barely rated a mention in all the market wires I read, other than freight premiums and insurance are likely to go up. One positive is that the relatively safe passage from Australia to SE Asia suddenly looks more attractive for wheat importers.
In the US, wheat markets were also weighed down by much-needed rainfall across Hard Red Winter (HRW) regions. That said, precipitation was largely concentrated in the eastern portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, leaving western areas still under significant stress. Crop condition ratings continue to deteriorate, with just 35% rated good-to-excellent, down from 48% last year, and around two-thirds of the region still in drought. Some analysts argue the damage is already done, drawing comparisons to the historically poor 2022 crop.
More rain is forecast in the coming week, with systems expected to push further into the parched western zones. While some yield potential has likely been lost, wheat has a well-earned reputation for recovery under favourable spring conditions. If forecasts verify, crop ratings could stabilise—and potentially improve—over the next fortnight.
Next week
A fragile ceasefire in Iran, Black Sea tensions simmering, and a genuine production issue emerging in the US, wheat markets don’t know which way to look. The HRW issue is grabbing headlines, but a deeper dive will indicate that much of Europe and Russia are lifting production expectations.
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Data sources: Reuters, USDA, SovEcon, Next Level Grain Marketing, CRM AGRI, Bloomberg, Mecardo
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.