Drop off in supply sends market higher

Wool clip on table

The Eastern market indicator rose for the third week in a row, up 70¢ to 1895¢ after a large decrease in bales offered, down from 44,765 to 33,666, a decrease of 24.8% week on week. The decrease in bales offered kept the pass in rate relatively flat, to 2.8% this week.

32,722 bales were sold this week, slightly above the average for the last year (32,192 bales sold) but well below the relatively high average bales sold for the last 2 months (38,646).  The AUD was up 0.36¢ against the greenback to 71.67¢ with the EMI raising 57¢ to 1358¢ in USD.

All local market indicators recorded consistent rises with Sydney up 76¢ to 1960¢, Melbourne saw a 67¢ rise to 1852¢ and Fremantle was up 73¢ to 2125¢.

In Sydney, fine and medium merino saw large price gains with 17.5 MPG up 91¢ to 2603¢, 18.5 MPG up 96¢ to 2468¢ and 19.5 MPG up 121¢ to 2277¢. Crossbred wool saw 26 MPG gain 77¢ to 915¢ with cardings having the smallest rise, up 9¢ to 1109¢.

In Melbourne, fine merino had a great week with 16.5 MPG up 136¢ to 2658¢, 18 MPG up 123¢ to 2557¢ and 19 MPG up 107¢ to 2369¢. Medium saw 20 MPG rise 87¢ to 2220¢ with crossbred wool and cardings lagging, 26 MPG was up 13¢ to 881¢ and cardings was up 27¢ to 1105¢.

In the west, fine merino 18.5 MPG rose 77¢ to 2448¢, medium merino 19.5 MPG was up 79¢ to 2272 and carding enjoyed a 48¢ gain to 1122¢.

This week in Mecardo, Andrew Woods explores the extent of rising wool price cycles given the rapid change in wool prices this season. Noting that there is room for further price rises in the next two to three months before this cycle matches the median pattern for the past 40 years. (Article available here)

The week ahead….

The national offering is forecast 18.7% higher from 33,666 to 39,956, given the recent levels of tight supply and results this week, a strong correction is unlikely.

Next week’s sales are scheduled for Wednesday in Fremantle, Tuesday and Wednesday in Melbourne and Wednesday and Thursday in Sydney.

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Data sources: AWEX, Mecardo

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