The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its quarterly livestock slaughter and meat production figures for September last week. The numbers explain a lot about what was happening in markets from June to September, but they are also important in assessing supply going forward.
The September quarter saw the first year-on-year decline in quarterly
lamb slaughter since December 2021. National lamb slaughter for the September
quarter came in at 6.34 million head, which was down 10.7% on the June quarter,
and 3.7% down on September 2023.
Figure 1 shows that the decline in lamb slaughter was coming from strong
levels. Lamb slaughter has trended up consistently since 2021, with increasing
flocks and good seasonal conditions being the drivers.
The check-in lamb slaughter in September can be put down to a 10% year-on-year
decline in NSW lamb slaughter, and a 7.5% fall in WA. Victoria is the largest
lamb slaughter state and has had the worst of the seasonal conditions. As such
it’s interesting to see lamb slaughter steady in Victoria compared to last year. Perhaps lambs were being drawn south to fill
what is now record slaughter capacity.
National sheep slaughter showed the opposite trend to lamb. While down 2% on the June quarter, there were
2.7 million head of sheep killed in September, up 28% on the same quarter in
2023. September sheep slaughter hasn’t
been this strong since 2006, and Figure 2 shows it is very much at the top of
the 15-year range.
The poor season is certainly showing up in sheep slaughter in Victoria
and South Australia, where numbers were up 44.6% and 39% respectively on
September last year. WA sheep slaughter
was also much stronger, 25% higher than last year at 464,300 head. The flock decline
in the WA seems to be continuing apace.
Slaughter weights are generally a good indicator of seasonal
conditions. Figure 3 shows lamb
slaughter weights were 0.8kgs lower than September 2023, at 23.6kgs per
head. In Victoria lambs were 1.1kgs
lighter. Saleyard price trends suggest
heavier lambs remain hard to come by, with seasonal conditions the driver.
What does it mean?
Traditionally lower lamb slaughter in September would point towards stronger slaughter in the December and March quarters. However, we need to take into account the number of lambs that were marked, a number we’re not sure of yet. Stronger mutton slaughter suggests more ewes are being culled, this could be due to them not rearing lambs in the winter and spring.
We’ve been looking forward to seeing the October survey data, as this will give more of a gauge on lamb supplies going forward.
Key Points
- Sheep and lamb slaughter data was released last week, with weaker lamb and stronger mutton.
- Lamb slaughter weights were lower, especially in Victoria, reflecting the tough season.
- Lower lamb and higher mutton could be early indications of weaker total lamb supply this year.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: ABS, MLA, Mecardo
