Forecasting a change in planted hectares of the winter crop nationally is already difficult, now there is an energy shock to factor in as well. Will more certainty on supply and seasonality halt a swing towards crops which can produce their own nitrogen?
ANZAC day have come and gone, and while it has historically marked the start of the winter crop sowing period, plenty have started already.
Pulses are a crop which typically don’t need urea, as they fix their own nitrogen. Pulse crops come with the added benefit of leaving nitrogen for the following crop, therefore providing a potential benefit of lower nitrogen usage next season, which might suit producers based on cost and availability.
The benefits, and price, of pulses have driven growth in planting in the last 10 years. Better agronomy and management have made lentils a more reliable crop for southern croppers, and figure 1 shows plantings have responded. Last year lentil plantings and production reached record levels.
Chickpeas are the other big pulse crop, but they will wait until spring for planting. Lupins are big in WA, and faba beans have been growing in areas, especially in southeastern cropping zones. Once known and ‘failure beans’, faba beans have also benefitted from improving cropping practices, so also see record plantings last year.
It is entirely reasonable to expect further growth in plantings of lentils, beans and lupins this year, but whether we see growth in production will obviously depend on rainfall and temperature. Figure 2 shows lentil yields dropped sharply in 2024-25 but recovered sharply in 2025-26.
As such it is a bit early to say that prices will be lower thanks to stronger supply. Pulse markets are driven by export demand, which can be fickle, and local feed demand, especially for beans and lupins.
Beans and lupins have a natural floor in the local feed market, as they have similar energy value with the benefits of added protein. Beans have spent this year at around $400-420 per tonne, with good supplies keeping a lid on them.
What does it mean?
It is highly likely pulse plantings will be stronger this year, but it doesn’t necessarily mean production will be higher. On price front there are plenty of variables, but feed values are beholden to cereal prices, and tighter supply or exports demand could see price spikes.
Key Points
- Pulse plantings are likely to be higher this year, as producers potentially opt towards less nitrogen demanding crops.
- Pulse production will depend heavily on rainfall and temperature in winter and spring.
- Bean and lupin prices will find a floor in cereal values but could spike on export demand.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: Bloomberg, ABARES, ABS, Mecardo
