Some more rain has fallen, but demand remains patchy. Light lambs to slaughter remain under pressure and heavy cull lambs and sheep remain a rare commodity.
Post April is always a tricky time to gauge where the market sits particularly at the moment with differing seasonal conditions across the country’s key sheep production regions. Saleyard reports give us an indication that its quite erratic. Wagga reports feeders outcompeting other buyers for the pick of the yardings. Merino ewes were sent back south at Dubbo. Grainfed lambs were the most sought after in Ballarat. Hamilton buyers prioritised heavier export lambs and Naracoorte had more luck amongst restocker buyers than elsewhere.
Indicators were a mixed bag but skewed lower overall. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) lost 35¢ to 1155¢/kg cwt. The steepest declines remained on the light lamb indicator (48¢ lower to 1079¢.kg cwt) the best performer were heavy lambs, up 9¢ to 1109¢/kg cwt. The National Mutton Indicator rose 3¢ to 774¢/kg cwt.
Rain has been very beneficial in the south, but its hasn’t been widespread and intense enough to see the market completely flip to the restockers in all locations. With higher costs, feeders need to find value or quality to make the most of a trade and are chasing grain fed stock. If you’ve got turnoff sheep, processors are very keen to get them if they can or take them away from producers.
As discussed on Mecardo this week by Jamie-Lee Oldfield, year to date sheep slaughter is sitting 70% lower than the same period in 2025 (article available here). Since March slaughter numbers have taken a dive, and the result will mean that we are unlikely to reach forecasted annual slaughter. Combined slaughter week ending 1st May was 497K which is still impacted by public holidays.
The week ahead….
Probably not enough rain for a strong push for lighter lambs back to the paddock before winter, but feeders should be active.
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Erratic may market
Post April is always a tricky time to gauge where the market sits particularly at the moment with differing seasonal conditions across the country’s key sheep production regions. Saleyard reports give us an indication that its quite erratic. Wagga reports feeders outcompeting other buyers for the pick of the yardings. Merino ewes were sent back south at Dubbo. Grainfed lambs were the most sought after in Ballarat. Hamilton buyers prioritised heavier export lambs and Naracoorte had more luck amongst restocker buyers than elsewhere.
Indicators were a mixed bag but skewed lower overall. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) lost 35¢ to 1155¢/kg cwt. The steepest declines remained on the light lamb indicator (48¢ lower to 1079¢.kg cwt) the best performer were heavy lambs, up 9¢ to 1109¢/kg cwt. The National Mutton Indicator rose 3¢ to 774¢/kg cwt.
Rain has been very beneficial in the south, but its hasn’t been widespread and intense enough to see the market completely flip to the restockers in all locations. With higher costs, feeders need to find value or quality to make the most of a trade and are chasing grain fed stock. If you’ve got turnoff sheep, processors are very keen to get them if they can or take them away from producers.
As discussed on Mecardo this week by Jamie-Lee Oldfield, year to date sheep slaughter is sitting 70% lower than the same period in 2025 (article available here). Since March slaughter numbers have taken a dive, and the result will mean that we are unlikely to reach forecasted annual slaughter. Combined slaughter week ending 1st May was 497K which is still impacted by public holidays.
The week ahead….
Probably not enough rain for a strong push for lighter lambs back to the paddock before winter, but feeders should be active.
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Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: Mecardo, Bloomberg, MLA
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Export volumes lower, but keeping pace with supply
Total sheepmeat exports fell by nearly a third year-on-year for the month of May. A lack of supply rather than any evidence of a further
Little fanfare for record trades and mutton
There hasn’t been a lot of fanfare, as prices have been strong for some time, increases are marginal, and the heavy end is lagging. The
Winter Wonderland
Winter is here and the market has begun to track higher as rain and supply tightness combine to push the market upward after some May
Supply slips further as focus moves from light to heavy
The lamb market continued to experience good support this week, with the exception of light lambs, which are now the only category sitting lower in
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.