Lamb exports remained resilient last month, but the sheep supply constraints were evident as mutton volumes fell away. China continues to bolster demand across both sectors, while the US market share of lamb has increased further to more than a third of all Australian exports. Despite current record high domestic pricing and potential for pushback, plenty of other markets have also grown their share of Australian lamb, as overall export percentage of production rises.
Lamb exports grew 5% from the previous month in June, to sit 1% above the five-year average but 10% lower than the same month last year. Year-to-date figures paint a different picture, however, with lamb export volumes for the first half of the year 41% lower year-on-year, and 29% below the five-year figure. Much of this drop can be written down to supply, with National Livestock Reporting Service weekly lamb slaughter figures tracking at about 15% lower than the previous year.
How much the current historically high domestic prices have started to impact exports is hard to gauge on the figures alone, but two things of note are that of all the main national price indicators the heavy lambs, which are a dominant export category, are operating at the lowest year-on-year premium – and significantly less than all the others.
The other point being that there has been no decline of share in any major market. For the year-to-date, the US has taken 39% of all Australian lamb, and China’s share has grown to 32%, both likely the highest they have been. But it hasn’t been to the detriment of other important destinations, with the likes of the UK and the EU increasing their intake from 2025.
Where have the losses been then? Well, the Middle East may be where some price pushback is occurring, especially given the increase in lighter lamb returns, with their lamb volumes down significantly so far this year. Of course, conflict in the region also has to have had an impact on logistics and demand. That said, mutton exports to the area for the first six months of the year are still tracking well, down on last year but 6% above the five-year-average.
Total Australian mutton exports fell below 10,000 tonnes in June, the lowest monthly total since July 2022. That figure is 20% lower than the five-year-average for June and brought the year-to-date total 36% lower than the same period in 2025. Of course, sheep slaughter has plummeted, as supply tightens significantly. But demand from China has also declined, back more than 50% for the year-to-date. Most other major markets have maintained market share but declined in volume slightly, except for the US, which is back 2%.
What does it mean?
Sustained market share paints a picture of maintained export demand for the supply Australia does currently have, and for the price it currently costs. The benefit of being the predominant exporter is there are few other options for those countries looking for lamb, with other proteins being a bigger competition, and that also not being in ample supply. What is also reassuring is where volumes have dropped in a sector in specific markets – ie: lamb or mutton – they have picked up in the other. There is little indication from these figures that the global market won’t maintain current pricing in the short term.
Key Points
- Lamb exports rose back above the five-year average, to their third-highest June volume on record.
- Mutton exports have plummeted on the back of short supply, falling to their lowest monthly total since July 2022.
- The US and China look to lamb to fill demand, while the Middle East keeps focus on mutton.
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Data sources: DAFF, DAWE, Meat & Livestock Australia, Mecardo
