The world’s demand for protein has not waned this year despite plenty of global unrest. Australian beef exports have reached new highs across the board as key markets look to us to fill their supply deaths, whether it be from limited production or trade barriers. And historically, the three months of the year we see the largest export volumes are still yet to come.
Australia exported 131,782 tonnes of beef in June, the largest volume to leave our shores in a single month on record. It was 47% more than the five-year average for the month and eclipsed the previous high set in January of this year by 2%. This brought calendar year-to-date volumes to 20% above the same period last year and also pushed the financial year (July-June) total 20% higher than the previous year — both of which broke records.
A diminished domestic herd and sky-high domestic meat prices have kept the US as Australia’s biggest beef market despite new tariffs, and it currently holds 30% of the market share. The June volume of 39,385 was 23% higher year-on-year and 100% more than the five-year average, lifting their year-to-date total 31% above 2024. That said, current volumes to the US are yet to eclipse those sent in our last true turnoff year of 2015, where monthly figures were above 40,000 tonnes.And we aren’t the only country cashing in on America’s beef dearth as their summer barbecuing season rolls around. The US has imported nearly 17% more beef this year, and while Australia has remained the largest supplier, product from their second-biggest supplier Brazil has increased by 115%. Volumes from Uruguay and Argentina have also jumped significantly, up 45% and 47% respectively, but their totals are much smaller.
China has overtaken Japan again this year to be Australia’s second-largest market at 18% of the share, with their monthly totals consistently being above 20,000 tonnes this year for the first time since pre-COVID. It has been reported that China’s domestic supply is stronger than first expected this year, slowing their import demand growth slightly, but their year-to-date volumes from Australia are currently 43% higher than 2024 and 33% above the five-year average. Their June figure was 105% more year-on-year.
Australia’s grain-fed beef exports have reached new highs as well, as the record number of cattle on feed contributes to the ability to continue to export such high volumes. The grainfed volume for June was a monthly record 39,886 tonnes, and China took more than 14,000 tonnes of it, an increase of 123%. China is Australia’s largest grain-fed beef customer for the year-to-date, having imported 55% more than the same time last year.
Rounding out our top three markets for beef is Japan, although it is only taking 1% more share than South Korea. Australia was Japan’s largest provider of beef in 2024, but inflation continues to impact consumer spending, and they now have the lowest market share for at least the past 25 years, and volumes for the year-to-date are 2% lower than the five-year average.
What does it mean?
Australian cattle slaughter reached its highest point for the year in the past few weeks and doesn’t appear to be slowing down. Even with an improvement of the season in the south, herd numbers are high enough that supply won’t be a problem when it comes to maintaining current export volumes. Demand is always more volatile, especially with Trump in the White House, but the strength coming from across our markets should ensure plenty of positivity in the trade for the remainder of the year. Which will mean support for finished cattle prices through the spring here at home.
Key Points
- Beef exports broke monthly total, financial year, and grainfed records in June.
- Calendar year-to-date beef exports are 20% higher year-on-year.
- US demand remains the key driver, but China is gaining back market share.
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Click on figure to expand
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Data sources: MLA, DAFF, DAWE, Mecardo, Steiner Consulting Group
