Total sheepmeat exports fell by nearly a third year-on-year for the month of May. A lack of supply rather than any evidence of a further boom in demand have pushed domestic prices to several new records in recent weeks. Despite the overall decrease, Australia’s top sheepmeat markets remain resilient, with three of the top four markets increasing their lamb intake so far this year, and two of the top four upping their mutton volumes - the US being the only country to up the ante on both. In contrast, a majority of the remaining destinations have diminished significantly, with only one market outside the top four increasing total sheepmeat imports from Australia.
Lamb exports are down 24% compared to the same month last year, bringing year-to-date volumes 11% lower than they were by the end of May in 2025. As mentioned, however, Australian lamb’s two largest single country markets, being China and the US, have actually seen an increase in volume for the year so far. Compared to the same time last year, both countries took 5% less Australian lamb in the month of May but have increased their intake for the year to date by 4% and 2% respectively.
China’s total market share of Australian Lamb exports has increased to 25% this year which is the highest they have been since 2019. For the year-to-date, lamb to China is up 14% on the five-year-average for the same period, which is the highest January-to-May total in the past five years. Some of this increase has likely taken the place of Australian mutton, which so far in 2026 has dipped 55% year-on-year. This has led to a 29% reduction in total sheepmeat volumes from Australia to China in the same period. We have to go back a full decade to find a year where China’s market share of Australian mutton exports was lower than the current 23%.
The US, on the other hand, is looking to fill its red meat shortfall in any way it can, with its mutton intake also up 2% for the year-to-date, meaning an overall increase of 2% when it comes to Australian sheepmeat. At 32%, it could be the highest market share the US has ever held of Australian lamb, with its year-to-date volume 15% above the five-year-average. According to Steiner Consulting Group, total US mutton imports were 41% higher for the four weeks ending May 30, and 75% of this volume came out of Australia. With sheepmeat production in the US down 19% year-on-year for the month of April, demand is expected to continue, despite the imported price for Australian lamb being up to 53% higher for some cuts compared to the same time last year.
Where does this leave the rest of Australia’s markets? Korea and Japan are the two countries outside the US which have increased their total sheepmeat imports from Australia, up 10% and 12% respectively, with increases to both their lamb and mutton volumes for the year so far. Meanwhile lamb exports to the Middle East as a region are down 42% for the year-to-May, and mutton is back 36%, as high costs and disruptions of trade and tourism start to impact demand.
What does it mean?
Keeping the above in perspective, year-to-date sheepmeat export volumes are still higher than three of the past five years and sit just 3% below the five-year-average, a figure well inflated by record breaking volumes in both 2024 and 2025. Comparatively, the national sheep and lamb slaughter according to weekly National Livestock Reporting Service figures is down 33% year-on-year, which is 2% more than total sheepmeat exports, and the lowest weekly average/year-to-date total since 2022. This teamed with current price levels shows export markets continue to strongly support demand.
Key Points
- Lamb and mutton exports are trending lower than year-ago and five-year-average levels.
- The US and Asia increase their market share of Australian lamb as exports to the Middle East diminish.
- Lower supply, rather than lesser demand is pushing exports lower as domestic sheep and lamb strengthen further
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Data sources: Meat & Livestock Australia, Steiner Consulting Group, Mecardo
