Grain markets continued to see support last week, with CBOT wheat (Dec’ 20) break-ing through key technical resistance of 600¢/bu. The strength of the rally is being driven by on-going weather concerns in the Black Sea region, parts of the US Plains (HRW) and South America. Corn is similarly lending support as unabated demand from China has driven corn futures to their highest level since this time last year (wet harvest in the US).
In the US, useful rains are forecast through the key wheat-producing states of Kansas and Oklahoma, albeit centered in the Eastern regions. The following 7-10 day period appears dry. Temperatures will also start dropping as we move into November, throwing more emphasis on this week’s forecasts.
Southern Russia also looks to pick up some useful showers this week, but totals appear far less than what is required to catch up on seasonal deficits. FOB prices in Russia and Ukraine continue to rally and are now above $250/t and up 27% since August. Russia is expected to export ~40mmt this year out of their production of 84mmt. With domestic prices soaring, consumers are getting a little anxious and will be watching whether the Russian Gov’t set export quota’s as a means of keeping inflation under control.
Good rains are expected across Brazil and Argentina later this week. After a prolonged dry period where Argentine estimates were dropped from 21mmt to 17mmt, stabilising rains will be welcomed.
Similarly, in Brazil, the soybean crop is at 6% planted, well behind the average sowing pace of 20%. These rains should see the soybean crop catch up and be well established. It may see harvest getting pushed out to February due to the delay in planting.
The week ahead….
It feels like the market is getting a little top heavy, so don’t be surprised to see some profit-taking happen.
The seasons in the north and south couldn’t be more different in terms of rainfall and crop progression. While somewhat overshadowed by market movements, the
The United States Department of Agriculture is forecasting a record soybean crop in the US, as large plantings and good growing conditions continue to see
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In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
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Exporter weather in the spotlight
In the US, useful rains are forecast through the key wheat-producing states of Kansas and Oklahoma, albeit centered in the Eastern regions. The following 7-10 day period appears dry. Temperatures will also start dropping as we move into November, throwing more emphasis on this week’s forecasts.
Southern Russia also looks to pick up some useful showers this week, but totals appear far less than what is required to catch up on seasonal deficits. FOB prices in Russia and Ukraine continue to rally and are now above $250/t and up 27% since August. Russia is expected to export ~40mmt this year out of their production of 84mmt. With domestic prices soaring, consumers are getting a little anxious and will be watching whether the Russian Gov’t set export quota’s as a means of keeping inflation under control.
Good rains are expected across Brazil and Argentina later this week. After a prolonged dry period where Argentine estimates were dropped from 21mmt to 17mmt, stabilising rains will be welcomed.
Similarly, in Brazil, the soybean crop is at 6% planted, well behind the average sowing pace of 20%. These rains should see the soybean crop catch up and be well established. It may see harvest getting pushed out to February due to the delay in planting.
The week ahead….
It feels like the market is getting a little top heavy, so don’t be surprised to see some profit-taking happen.
Have any questions or comments?
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Click on graph to expand
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Data sources: CRM Agri, AHDB, Next Level Grain Marketing, Mecardo
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.