Grain markets continued to see support last week, with CBOT wheat (Dec’ 20) break-ing through key technical resistance of 600¢/bu. The strength of the rally is being driven by on-going weather concerns in the Black Sea region, parts of the US Plains (HRW) and South America. Corn is similarly lending support as unabated demand from China has driven corn futures to their highest level since this time last year (wet harvest in the US).
In the US, useful rains are forecast through the key wheat-producing states of Kansas and Oklahoma, albeit centered in the Eastern regions. The following 7-10 day period appears dry. Temperatures will also start dropping as we move into November, throwing more emphasis on this week’s forecasts.
Southern Russia also looks to pick up some useful showers this week, but totals appear far less than what is required to catch up on seasonal deficits. FOB prices in Russia and Ukraine continue to rally and are now above $250/t and up 27% since August. Russia is expected to export ~40mmt this year out of their production of 84mmt. With domestic prices soaring, consumers are getting a little anxious and will be watching whether the Russian Gov’t set export quota’s as a means of keeping inflation under control.
Good rains are expected across Brazil and Argentina later this week. After a prolonged dry period where Argentine estimates were dropped from 21mmt to 17mmt, stabilising rains will be welcomed.
Similarly, in Brazil, the soybean crop is at 6% planted, well behind the average sowing pace of 20%. These rains should see the soybean crop catch up and be well established. It may see harvest getting pushed out to February due to the delay in planting.
The week ahead….
It feels like the market is getting a little top heavy, so don’t be surprised to see some profit-taking happen.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) released its June Crop Report last week, which gives us the first look at
The past week has been dominated by geopolitics, which may have long-term ramifications for global trade. Firstly, President Trump got called out for rehashing his
You know the drought is getting serious when politicians start turning up on farms, making announcements. This drought is different from what the East Coast
Markets have chopped around either side of unchanged this week, not unexpected when con-sidering the abbreviated week from the US Memorial Day public holiday. Over
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.
Exporter weather in the spotlight
In the US, useful rains are forecast through the key wheat-producing states of Kansas and Oklahoma, albeit centered in the Eastern regions. The following 7-10 day period appears dry. Temperatures will also start dropping as we move into November, throwing more emphasis on this week’s forecasts.
Southern Russia also looks to pick up some useful showers this week, but totals appear far less than what is required to catch up on seasonal deficits. FOB prices in Russia and Ukraine continue to rally and are now above $250/t and up 27% since August. Russia is expected to export ~40mmt this year out of their production of 84mmt. With domestic prices soaring, consumers are getting a little anxious and will be watching whether the Russian Gov’t set export quota’s as a means of keeping inflation under control.
Good rains are expected across Brazil and Argentina later this week. After a prolonged dry period where Argentine estimates were dropped from 21mmt to 17mmt, stabilising rains will be welcomed.
Similarly, in Brazil, the soybean crop is at 6% planted, well behind the average sowing pace of 20%. These rains should see the soybean crop catch up and be well established. It may see harvest getting pushed out to February due to the delay in planting.
The week ahead….
It feels like the market is getting a little top heavy, so don’t be surprised to see some profit-taking happen.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: CRM Agri, AHDB, Next Level Grain Marketing, Mecardo
Categories
Have any questions or comments?
Eastern and western wheat see production drop
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) released its June Crop Report last week, which gives us the first look at
Geopolitics, weather, and a wooden horse
The past week has been dominated by geopolitics, which may have long-term ramifications for global trade. Firstly, President Trump got called out for rehashing his
No drought premium for grain
You know the drought is getting serious when politicians start turning up on farms, making announcements. This drought is different from what the East Coast
Wheat is held in a rattled cage
Markets have chopped around either side of unchanged this week, not unexpected when con-sidering the abbreviated week from the US Memorial Day public holiday. Over
Want market insights delivered straight to your inbox?
Sign up to the mailing list to get regular updates to new analysis and market outlooks
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.