Despite poor seasonal conditions for much of 2025 in a large number of sheep-producing areas, Meat and Livestock Australia has revised this year’s flock numbers higher than the first forecast back in March. The latest sheep industry projections, released earlier this month, still have the sheep flock, as well as sheep and lamb slaughter, declining year-on-year. But flock numbers are now expected to be more than 1% higher than the previous projections.
Australia’s sheep flock was estimated to be 74.2 million head as of June 30 this year, which was a 6.2% drop from last year’s 79 million. Comparatively, in March, the flock was forecast to be 73.2 million head this year, or 7.4% lower than in 2024. This means, despite seasonally influenced high turn-off, MLA is estimating there are 1 million more sheep in the paddock than they thought there would be six months ago.
The forward projections for the flock have also increased, with sheep numbers predicted to rise for the next two years and be back within 0.17%, or about 140,000 head, of 2024 numbers in 2027. In March, MLA forecast the sheep flock would fall by a further 2% in 2026 and sit 6% lower than 2024 in 2027. Two main factors have influenced the revision: the first being that the Australian Bureau of Statistics hasn’t released national sheep figures since 2022, and the second being that total sheep and lamb slaughter has also been revised lower for 2025.
Official lamb slaughter fell about 4% in the June quarter (latest figures available) from both the previous quarter and the same quarter the previous year. It is now forecast to be about 1.2 million head lower than projected in March, at 24.9 million head, close to 6% lower year-on-year. The delay in new season lambs is likely to impact third-quarter numbers, with a rise expected again in the last three months.
Export figures have been revised higher, with mutton volumes now expected to be 18% more than they were at the March forecast and lamb 13% higher. These figures are still down from last year’s record highs but are historically very strong. Lamb exports are expected to be 4.5% above 2024 levels by 2027, while the flock rebuild, if it eventuates, will see mutton back 17% on last year by 2027.
What does it mean?
Anecdotally, sheep numbers would have been expected to be revised even further down, rather than increase on March projections; however, with no guidance from the ABS, industry is still working with last year’s estimated numbers and this year’s turn-off. It will be how the spring plays out seasonally, which dictates sheep turn-off for the remainder of this year, with the market being well supported by strong export demand..
Key Points
- Latest industry projections forecast 2025 sheep numbers to drop less than they predicted in March.
- Future flock forecast also revised higher, with 2027 on par with last year.
- Lamb and mutton exports to be stronger than first projected, with lamb forecast to hit new highs in 2027.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
