Australian cattle prices have made significant year on year gains in 2025 despite ample supply, as global protein demand, led by the US, created a demand led market. This meant historically strong pricing regardless of extreme variability in seasonal conditions across the country. It bodes well for 2026, as we head back into the northern hemisphere’s summer and the need for protein across the world continues to grow. The beef sector’s biggest uncertainty, as always, will be what the weather has in store.
Domestic cattle prices have improved markedly year on year in 2025, with demand managing to more than offset historically strong supply and cautious, at best, restocker support across southern Australia. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator has averaged 762¢/kg for the year to date, an increase of 22% on the 2024 average, and currently 30% above the same week last year. Longer term, the EYCI will finish the year at about 9% above the five year average figure for the same week, and 28% above the 10 year price, but its calendar year average will still sit at about 4% below the five year data.
Most of the national price points tell a very similar story to above, with the main divergence between processor and feeder and restockers on the longer term prices, rather than year on year. Interestingly, despite the current demand dynamics, processor cows and heavy steers calendar year averages were 12% and 8% below the five year figures respectively, while restocker steers and feeder steers came in 6% and 3% above those longer term averages.
A new record has already been set this year for Australian beef export volumes in a calendar year, despite one month of data still to come in. For the year to November, 1.398 million tonnes of beef have headed offshore, a 15% year on year increase, with all four of Australia’s top markets increasing their intake. Again, unsurprisingly, it has been the largest market, the US, driving the volumes, with its historically low herd and slowing slaughter creating a gap not only in their own market, but in those markets to which they also traditionally export beef.
America has imported 17% more Australian beef year on year so far in 2025, despite a 10% reciprocal tariff having been applied for a majority of the year, and the year to date total is 47% more than the five year average for the same period. Imports to China were up 43% year on year, and 35% above the longer term volumes, while total grainfed beef exports out of Australia jumped 19% as sustained new levels of cattle on feed and lotfeeding capacity become the norm in the sector, underpinning supply in variable seasons.
What does it mean?
Strong herd numbers, favourable seasons in northern Australia over the past year, and a growing grainfed sector have placed Australia in the box seat to fill the gaping hole left in the global beef market by the US, and this will continue into 2026. This demand will be the main driver of the domestic cattle market for the year to come, with the main risk of any significant downward pressure on prices coming from possible poor seasons increasing turn off further, giving processors more margin opportunity. On the flip side of this, widespread above average rainfall could add restocker demand to the already strong market, pushing prices back toward the highs seen in 2021-22, despite the big herd.
Key Points
- The female slaughter ratio for the June 2024 quarter was 53%, pointing towards decline in the national cattle herd.
- The NSW FSR is 57%, the highest its been in the state for 15 years.
- Current good seasonal conditions in high cattle production areas mean female turnoff is unlikely to continue to inflate in the short term.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, DAFF, Mecardo
