Booming beef exports have continued in August, as South Korea and China added further support to the strong demand out of the US. Grainfed beef volumes continued to gain pace on the back of yet another record high quarter for cattle on feed in Australia. The latest Meat & Livestock Australia industry projections have exports reaching their peak for the cycle in 2025, with year-to-date volumes at record levels. Production is unlikely to constrict the trade at all, but tariffs could start to play a role if domestic pricing experiences any significant increase.
August beef exports were 44% above the five-year average, reaching the second-highest single-month volume, the first being the previous month. Year-to-date volumes are now 18% above last year, in which a new calendar year record of 1.34 million tonnes was set. The US remained Australia’s biggest market with just shy of 30% of the share, and although it took slightly less volume (1%) than the same month in 2024, there is now a 10% tariff that wasn’t there 12 months ago. According to the latest Steiner Consulting Group US imported beef market report, American cow slaughter is down 20% year-on-year and 50% lower than three years ago, supporting the trade of Australia’s 90CL beef. Year-to-date beef exports from Australia to the US are up 22%.
Australian beef exports to South Korea hit a monthly record in August, increasing 18% year-on-year, and 36% more than the five-year average for the month. Year-to-date volumes are now up 17% from 2024, and this means we could have already hit the trade agreement safeguard quota, with remaining exports to this market now subject to a 24% tariff. China took 8,000 fewer tonnes of Australian beef in August than in July; however, trade was still at a record for that particular month, and 54% above the five-year average. It comes as Australia already hit its safeguard quota with China in July, and beef will now face additional tariffs.
Year-to-date, Australian beef exports to China are up 50%, while grainfed product specifically is up nearly 60%. It also rose last year, when total beef exports were lower year-on-year. China is having to look elsewhere for its grain-fed product since trade relations with the US have diminished, and Australia is one of those destinations. This comes as second-quarter cattle on feed rose yet again, to 1.57 million head, an increase of 5% from the previous three months. It is the seventh consecutive quarter of rising numbers on feed, which has led to record grainfed beef exports, with the top 15 monthly figures occurring since the start of 2024. Capacity only grew by 3%, to 1.7 million, meaning utilisation hit 93%, also a record for the sector.
What does it mean?
Australia’s growing grainfed sector has it well placed to not only fill the void left by lower production and trade tensions out of the US, but also assist in meeting market demand when Australia passes peak production and turnoff slows in the coming years of the cycle. Export demand keeping up with cattle on feed increases bodes well for the industry, especially as it has shown resilience against recent dire seasonal conditions in the south.
Key Points
- Australian beef exports fall from July, but still record their second-highest monthly figure.
- Demand from the US, and growth in our grainfed trade, continue to contribute to export market momentum.
- Record number of cattle on feed supporting grainfed beef exports, which are up 42% in the past five years.
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Data sources: Mecardo; Meat & Livestock Australia; Steiner; ALFA
